江西财经大学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (02): 481-.

• • 上一篇    

信息质量与证券分析师预测精度

张 文1,王 昊2a,苑 珺2b   

  1. (1. 审计署,北京 100830;2. 江西财经大学 a. 法学院;b. 金融学院,江西 南昌 330013)
  • 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:张 文,审计署,博士研究生,主要从事会计理论与方法研究,联系方式23539788@qq.com;王 昊,江西财经大学硕士研究生,主要从事经济与管理研究;苑 珺,江西财经大学硕士研究生,主要从事政策分析研究。

Information Quality and Forecast Accuracy of Securities Analysts

ZHANG Wen, WANG Hao, YUAN Jun   

  1. (National Audit Office of PRC, Beijing 100830; Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
  • Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 基于我国卖方分析师2004-2013年的财务预测数据,研究上市公司信息质量对卖方分析师预测精度的影响。实证结果显示,上市公司财务报告信息质量可以显著影响卖方分析师预测精度。上市公司信息质量越低,分析师预测精度越低。目前我国卖方分析师实际上无法预先识别出上市公司的财务信息变化,改善证券市场信息环境在一定程度上可以提高证券分析师预测精度。这一结论为解释卖方分析师追踪行为提供了新的经验证据,为上市公司完善信息自愿披露机制提供了有益启示,也为监管部门出台相关政策规范分析师行业的发展提供了理论参考。

关键词: 信息质量,卖方分析师,预测精度

Abstract: This article conducts an analysis of the impact of information quality of listed companies on the forecast accuracy of sell-side analysts based on the financial forecasting data of the sell-side analysts from 2004 to 2013. The empirical result indicates that the information quality of the financial reports of listed companies can significantly impact the forecast accuracy of the sell-side analysts. The worse the information quality, the lower the forecast accuracy will be. At present, the sell-side analysts in China are still incapable of recognizing the financial information changes in the listed companies in advance, to improve the information environment of the securities markets can improve the forecast accuracy of the analysts to some extent. This conclusion can provide new empirical evidences to interpret the tracking behavior of the sell-side analysts, provide meaningful implications for the improvement of the voluntary information disclosure mechanism of the listed companies, and provide theoretical references for the supervision departments to introduce some relevant policies for the development of analyst service industry.

Key words: information quality; sell-side analyst; forecast accuracy