关键词: 价格波动,经营风险,格兰杰因果检验,金融套期保值

Abstract: Based on the data about spot price of deformed steel bar and EBIT of sample companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in 2002-2009, this paper empirically analyzes the correlation between commodity price fluctuation and business risks with the method of Granger Causality Testing (including Co-integration Testing). The result indicates that the fluctuation of spot price of deformed steel bar is a major Granger Causality of business risks. Therefore, it can be assured that to manage the risks of commodity price fluctuation can reach the target of managing the business risks; it is proved to be effective for the enterprises to employ derivatives such as commodity futures to manage risks; and the assessment index is EBIT SD ratio minimization rather than EBIT maximization.

Key words: price fluctuation; business risk; Granger Causality Test; financial hedging