Table of Content

15 December 2022, Volume 0 Issue 12

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Theoretical Economics

Does the Use of Robots Exacerbate the Return of Rural Migrate Labor Force?

ZHEN Hao, JIA Nan

2022, 0(12):  3-15. 

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In the recent ten years, the return of rural migrate labor force has been continuing, and the proportion of the return is not falling but rising while the household registration system being relaxed. At the same time, theuse of robotsis increasingly popular, there may be a causal link between the two. This paper conducts an empirical study with the data of China Household Financial Survey. The findings show that the use of robots does havea significant promoting effect on the return of rural labor force. It is found through a heterogeneity analysis that the impact of the use of robots is mainly on the young male group with lower education background in rural labor force. The result of a mechanism analysis shows that this impact includes the direct employment effect and the indirect employment effect. On the one hand, the use of robots directly reduces the employment in the industrial industry, resulting in the forced return of rural labor force engaged in industry. On the other hand, the use of robots compels the labor force flowing from the industry to the tertiary industry, which intensifies the employment competition in the tertiary industry, and indirectly increases the return probability of rural labor force in the tertiary industry. This suggests that the government should pay attention to the employment situation of the returned young groups, strengthen the risk prevention of unemployment, give full play to the energetic characteristics of the returned young groups, encourage them to actively find jobs or start their own businesses, so as to help rural economic development.

Digitization, Factor Bias and Industry Labor Compensation Share

SHEN Hong-liang, SONG Si-meng, LI Jie

2022, 0(12):  16-26. 

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As digital transformation being accelerated, the widespread adoption of digital technologies has exerted a profound impact on the labor market. This paper conducts an empirical study by making use of China’s 2000-2018 sub-industrial panel data. The findings show that digitalization is gradually weakening the capital bias of technological progress, which has a positive impact on the overall share of labor remuneration, and there exists industry heterogeneity. The digitalization of manufacturing industry has improved labor efficiency, making technological progress being in favor of capital, which results in a reduction in labor demand per unitof output, with a negative impact on the share of labor compensation. The digitalization of the service industry has improved capital efficiency, the labor bias of technological progress is deepened and the positive impact on the share of labor remuneration is increased. From the perspective of the subdivided industries, compared with capital- and technology-intensive manufacturing industries, the negative effect of the digitalization of labor-intensive manufacturing industries on the share of labor remuneration is stronger. The positive effect of digitalization on the share of labor remuneration in technology-intensive service industries is stronger, and the impact on data-intensive service industries is negative.

Public Economics & Administration

Dynamic Selection of Total Volume Expansion and Structural Optimization of the Proactive Fiscal Policy: From the Perspective of Steady Growth

JIN Cheng-xiao, JIANG Xu

2022, 0(12):  27-39. 

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The proactive fiscal policy has the functions of both stabilizing growth and adjusting structure. It is not only a necessary measure for high-quality economic development, but also an important part of deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. By making use of the counterfactual analysis of historical shock decomposition based on DSGE model and DSGE-VAR impulse response, this paper studies the effects and characteristics of the proactive fiscal policy tools. The findings show that the proactive fiscal policy has a replacement effect between government and private sector leverage, and the coordination between total volume expansion and structural adjustment can effectively increase the fiscal policy space. The proactive fiscal policy can support the effectiveness of monetary policy. The role of the fiscal transfer payment in promoting growth is more obvious through the short-term demand side, while the productive fiscal payment is more conducive to employment through the long-term supply side. Therefore, this paper suggests to optimize and perfect the proactive fiscal policy from the three aspects: the first is to consider the sustainability of the proactive fiscal policy from a more comprehensive and long-term perspective; the second is to further explore a high-level coordination mechanism between finance and monetary policy, so that a joint force can be formed by them; the third is to consider the time and regional characteristics of the different fiscal policy instruments, adopting different development strategies to give full play to their own advantages.

Will China’s Tax Reduction Policy Affect the Efficiency of Local Fiscal Expenditures?

MO Long-jiong, YIN Jing-hua

2022, 0(12):  40-51. 

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The tax reduction policy will lead local governments to development dilemma of imbalanced fiscal revenue and expenditure. Improving the quality and efficiency of fiscal and taxation policies is of great significance in guaranteeing the policy space of China’s tax and fee reduction and maintaining the local fiscal sustainability. With the help of the pilot reform of “replacing business tax with VAT”to capture the exogenous changes of the tax reduction policy, this paper tries to identify the impact of China’s tax reduction policy on the efficiency of local fiscal expenditure and its mechanism by making use of the difference-in-difference model. The findings show that the implementation of the“VAT reform”policy has significantly improved the efficiency of local fiscal expenditures. In order to cope with the fiscal pressure caused by the tax reduction policies, local governments have improved the efficiency of fiscal expenditures by strengthening audit and supervision and optimizing the structure of public expenditures. The greater the degree of fiscal autonomy, intergovernmental competition, fiscal transparency, and marketization, the more obvious the effect of tax reduction policies in improving fiscal expenditure efficiency will be. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should achieve the goal of improving the quality and efficiency of the fiscal and taxation policies from the following four aspects: deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and improving the fiscal expenditure efficiency during the process of tax and fee reduction; improving the fiscal revenue and expenditure incentive mechanism, and correcting the structural deviation of fiscal expenditure of local governments in“paying more attention on production than service”; allocating the financial power and the authority of office scientifically, and mobilizing the enthusiasm of the central macroeconomic regulating ability and the local financial autonomous ability; deepening the reform of government budget system and financial affairs public system.

Modern Finance

Wholesale Financing and Bank Risks

CHEN Zhong-yang, YI Zhuo-rui

2022, 0(12):  52-63. 

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Liability structure is not only the foundation and starting point for the stable operation of banks, but also the meaning required by the improvement of the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy. The findings of the empirical study based on the data of China’s listed commercial banks show that, though wholesale financing is negatively correlated with ex ante individual risk indicators, it in fact reduces the stability of banks; this impact is especially obvious on the listed non-state-owned commercial banks. Wholesale financing will increase the contagion risk of the listed commercial banks and the risk exposure of the listed non-state-owned commercial banks via institutional connectedness. Meanwhile, no significant interbank peer monitoring exists among the listed banks, and the individual bank risk has no significant impact on the wholesale financing cost, nor enough evidence can be found to support that banks can disperse individual risks through institutional connectedness; on the contrary, institutional connectedness has enhanced the impact of wholesale financing on bank credit risks. Consequently, it is necessary to enhance the information disclosure mechanism of the liability financial products, strengthen the supervision of systemically vulnerable banks, increase the weight of wholesale financing in the evaluation of systematic important banks and the importance in the macro-prudential regulation, and improve the quality of debt and the stickiness of deposit customers.

How Dose Financial Reform Promote the High-Quality Development of Private Enterprises?

ZHANG Zhi-yuan, MA Yong-fan

2022, 0(12):  64-74. 

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The problems of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises still exist in the new period of deepening financial reform, which have become serious challenges restricting the high-quality development of private enterprises. Promoting development through reform is a valuable experience of socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics. Therefore, to objectively measure the policy effects of financial reform and summarize the experiences is crucial for private enterprises to achieve high-quality development. This paper takes the establishment of the comprehensive financial reform pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment to conduct an empirical study with the data of China’s A-share private listed companies and the difference-in-differences model. The results show that the financial reform has significantly promoted the high-quality growth of private enterprises, because the financial reform has improved both the“quality”and“quantity”of financial supply. To be specific, following the financial reform, the availability of credit to private enterprises is increased, the maturity structure is optimized to a certain degree, and the cost is significantly reduced. Further test shows that the policy effect of financial reforms is more pronounced in the growing and high-tech enterprises and in the regions with weaker financial regulation and higher level of marketization. As a result, it is necessary to continually deepen the financial system reform and optimize the financial environment for the development of private enterprises. Meanwhile, it is necessary to improve the supporting policies for the reforms, coordinate the regional financial development planning, and reduce the negative externalities of the reforms.

Business Administration

A Study of Leadership Model Construction by the Book of Changes

WU Zhao-yun, JIANG Hao-tian

2022, 0(12):  75-88. 

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In the modern management practice, managers often have dual identities of leader and manager. The difference between the two is that managers are usually faced with stable and routine problems and decision-making while leaders are more confronted with unstable and unconventional issues and decision-making. Therefore, leadership is generally regarded an art of management to deal with changes, which is requiredin the VUCA era. In China, the Book of Changes is regarded as “the first and foremost among all the scriptures”. It was made by Fuxi’s observation of the natural changes and has become the enlightening masterpiece of the thought of changing with the time, which coincides with the artistry of the leadership. During the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, it was even interpreted differently by hundreds of scholars to form their own doctrines and has brought a heated debate of management thoughts. Therefore, from the perspective of Chinese traditional culture, through decomposing the content and structure of the Book of Changes, integrating the leadership philosophy of the two schools of the image-numerology and the philosophical connotations, combining the historical compilation and the rooting theory, the leadership model of the Book of Changes can be reduced to be the leadership cogitation of dividing and uniting, the leadership method of combining yin and yang, the leadership cycle of growing collections, the leadership characteristics of self-discipline and stabilizing others, and the leadership goal of transforming negatives into success, so as to provide incremental contributions to the original leadership theory with Chinese characteristics.

Research on the Dynamic Influence of Corporate Environmental Strategy on Competitive Advantages

QIAN Xiao-yan, XU Chang-xin

2022, 0(12):  89-98. 

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Whether corporate environmental strategy can help maintain competitive advantage while enhancing legitimacy has been a concern of enterprises and the society. Based on the data of listed companies in the heavy pollution industry from 2008 to 2019, this paper constructs a dynamic panel autoregression model to verify the dynamic relationship between corporate environmental strategy and competitive advantage through the mechanism of sustainable impact of changes in corporate environmental investment on financial performance growth. The findings show that the growth of financial performance has a mean regression phenomenon: when the financial performance is growing positively, an active environmental strategy will help the enterprises maintain their competitive advantages; when the financial performance is negatively growing, the active environmental strategy cannot accelerate the recovery of enterprises in financial distress. By quantifying the difference in the duration of corporate environmental strategy on competitive advantage through Koyck model, it is found that when financial performance is growing positively, an increase in corporate environmental investment by one unit can extend the duration of financial performance growth by 20% to 50%. Compared with the enterprises that do not implement environmental strategies, enterprises that make environmental investments can extend the duration of financial performance growth by several months.

Industry & Trade

How External Demand Affects Corporate Environmental Performance in China

WANG Qing-feng, XIE Juan-juan

2022, 0(12):  99-110. 

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Based on China’s reality, this paper attempts to study the problem of environmental pollution in China from the perspective of external demand. Based on the theoretical framework of multi-product enterprises, this paper constructs a theoretical model that includes external demand and pollution emission intensity to explain the influence mechanism of external demand changes on pollution emission intensity of multi-product export firms. Then it verifies the impact of the external demand on pollution emission intensity based on the China’s micro-enterprise data from 2000 to 2013. The results show that the improvement of external demand is conductive to reducing the pollution emission intensity of the multi-product exporting firms. The improvement of external demand can reduce the pollution emission intensity through the resource allocation optimization and green technology progress. In the case of weak external demand, to transfer export to domestic sales by the firms can also help to reduce the intensity of pollution emissions. These research conclusions provide a new analysis perspective for China to win the battle of pollution prevention and control, and also provide China’s evidences to the developing countries with higher trade dependence.

Estimation of Import Price Index for Different Income Groups in China

TAO Hong-zhan, SONG Tao

2022, 0(12):  111-123. 

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Studying the import price index of different income groups is crucial for the measurement of the changes in the living costs of different income groups and for the revelation of the price effect of international trade. By constructing the structural theoretical framework of import price index for specific income groups from the heterogeneity perspective and combining the alternative elastic hybrid estimation method, this paper makes use of the data of import products from CEPII-BACI database and the data of Chinese Urban Household Survey to measure the import price index of different income groups and analyze the degree of import price inflation of different income groups in China for the first time. The findings show that the import price indexes of different income groups have an upward trend. The middle-income groups and the low-income groups have suffered the highest import price inflation, and the rapid increase of the import price index of manufactured goods is the main reason forthe low- and middle-income groups suffering higher import price inflation. While implementing the strategy of expanding imports and building a new dual-cycle development pattern, it is necessary to prevent the rise in import prices from causing a greater negative impact on the cost of living of the low- and middle-income groups and aggravating their vulnerability; and the corresponding public welfare policies should be implemented, so as to strengthen their ability of response to trade shocks.

Modern Accounting

Do Executives of Multinational Corporations Grab More Private Profits: From the Perspective of Executives’ Excess Position-Related Consumption

ZHU Jie

2022, 0(12):  124-136. 

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International operation is an important way for Chinese enterprises to use global production factors and domestic and foreign markets. So, compared with the enterprises that do not carry out international operations, will the international operations of Chinese transnational enterprises aggravate their executives’ excess consumptions related to their positions? Taking Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021 as the research objects, this paper discusses the private profits grabbing behavior of the executives of multinational corporations from the perspective of their excess position-related consumptions. The findings show that the higher the degree of international operation of the corporates, the higher the degree of excess consumptions related to positions of executives. The higher operational risks and the lower financial risks will strengthen the positive correlation between the international operations of corporations and the excessive position-related consumption behaviors of executives. The result of the mechanism test reveals that the corporate product market risks, excess cash holding behaviors of executives and overseas M&A behaviors caused by corporate international operations respectively constitute the pressure, opportunities and excuses for the occurrence of executives’ excess position-related consumptions. The result of further test reveals that executives’ excess position-related consumptions in multinational corporations will exert an adverse impact on the total factor productivity of the enterprises. The heterogeneity tests find that when the quality of information disclosure is high and the proportion of institutional investors is high, executives’ excess position-related consumption behaviors in multinational corporations can be significantly suppressed.

Investors’ Limited Attention and“Place Name Effect”in Stock Names: Evidences Released from the Planning of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

DOU Xiao-chen, LIU Xi-peng, WANG Yu-lan

2022, 0(12):  137-148. 

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Stock names are regarded as the public identity cards of the listed companies, so it is worth noticing how it can affect investors’ behavior and assets pricing. Based on the theory of investors’“limited attention”, this paper takes advantage of the exogenous shocking event of the release of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) planning to testthe impact of the “place name effect”of stock names on the response of the markets of listed companies’stocks with the event research method. The findings show that when facing external macro-regional good news, investors would have irrational and selective attention behaviors, which is specifically reflected in the stronger response of the stock markets with relevant geographic information in the stock names. This confirms the theory of investors’ limited attention. The results of further consideration of the influence of corporate cross-section differences reveal that the higher the corporate growth, the more the number of analysts tracking, the higher the proportion of institutional investors’ shareholding, the more effectively reducing of the investors’ behaviors of limited attention. Meanwhile, compared with the investors from different places, the local investors have weaker limited attention, and their investment decisions are more rational. Thus, the investors should reasonably evaluate the market values of the listed companies, make rational investments, and restrain the unreasonable investment behaviors resulted from the place name effect.