Table of Content

15 January 2019, Volume 0 Issue 01

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Will the Text Message in Annual Reports Be Used by Analysts in Their Prediction?

XU Wen-zhao1, ZHU Zhao-hui1,2

2019, 0(01):  26. 

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At present, the non-financial information with text messages as the principal part is becoming more and more important in annual reports. This paper adopts the textual intonation statistical method and characteristic word statistical method to analyze the text message in the annual reports of China’s A-share listed companies through Python programming language. The findings show that analysts would pay attention to the text information in the annual reports and adjust the performance forecast of listed companies. If the tone of the text message does not match the actual performance and is extremely optimistic, the analyst will downgrade the performance forecast and reduce their focus on the text message.

Managerial Equity Incentive, One Person Holding Two Positions and Enterprise Over-Debt: An Analysis Based on Two Kinds of Agency Theories

DONG Yi-yu, GUO Ze-guang

2019, 0(01):  27. 

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Excessive debt is not conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises. By employing both the agency theory of managerial opportunism and the agency theory of limited ability, this paper explores the relationships between managerial equity incentive, one person being both the chairman and the general manager, and enterprise over-debt in the context of the length of management tenure being different. The results show that when the tenure is shorter, there is no significant correlation between equity incentive and over-debt, while one person being both chairman and general manager is negatively correlated with enterprise over-debt. However, as the tenure increases, there appears a tendency of negative correlation between equity incentive and over-debt, while the negative correlation between one person holding two positions and over debt is weakened. When the tenure is longer, with the increase of equity incentive, the enterprise over-debt ratio presents a significant U-type tendency of first decrease then increase. Compared with the enterprises that adopt the policy of two-person-two-position, the enterprises that adopt the policy of one person being both chairman and general manager are more likely have over debts. This conclusion can provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for enterprises to choose effective incentive and restraint mechanism to reduce their over debts.

The Impact of Bilateral Political Relational Distance on China’s Export Trade: A Research Based on the UNGA Vote Data

WANG Jue, LI Ang, ZHOU Mao

2019, 0(01):  28. 

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This paper is the first one to empirically examine the impact of the bilateral political relational distance on China’s export trade based on the bilateral political relational distance estimated according to the UNGA vote data. The findings show that: firstly, to shorten the bilateral political distance can significantly promote China’s export; secondly, a sound bilateral political relationship can create better external conditions for China’s export through the three specific channels, i.e., construction of culture mutual trust among the trade partners, establishing the regional free trade cooperation mechanism, and strengthening the political cooperation at the top level; thirdly, the export promoting effect from the improved bilateral political relationship is somewhat different towards the enterprises with different ownership, towards different export destination countries, and towards different types of export products. Moreover, the improvement of bilateral political relationship can promote the export of China’s products with comparative advantages, which have reinforced the advantageous of China’s export products in developed countries.

Enterprise Innovation and Energy Intensity

LIAO Jin-qiu, XU Jia-tao

2019, 0(01):  29. 

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From the two perspectives of innovative input & output and innovation ways, this paper makes use of the data from the Survey on the Business Environment of Chinese Enterprises of World Bank 2012 to examine the relationship between enterprise innovation and energy intensity. The results show that the corporate innovation measured by innovative input and innovative output can both reduce energy intensity, and the enterprise innovation measured by innovative output has a stronger effect on energy intensity reduction. The order of the three innovations according to their capability of reducing energy intensity is as follows: first, product innovation, second, process innovation, last, management innovation. As for reducing energy intensity through process innovation and management innovation, large and medium-sized enterprises can play a greater role than small and micro enterprises, but as for reducing energy intensity through product innovation, small and micro enterprises can play a greater role than large and medium-sized enterprises. The product innovation and management innovation of the labor-intensive industry can play a significant role in reducing energy intensity. The three kinds of innovations of the technology intensive industry can all reduce energy intensity significantly, but the three kinds of innovations in the capital intensive industry cannot play such a significant role. The three kinds of innovations of the enterprises in the Eastern region can all significantly reduce energy intensity, while the product innovation and management innovation of the enterprises in the central and western regions can significantly reduce energy intensity.

Real Estate Investment of Listed Companies and Enterprise Innovation

XIONG Ling-yun

2019, 0(01):  30. 

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By using the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2015, this paper examines the impact of listed companies’ real estate investment on enterprise innovation and its mechanism of action. The findings show that the increase in real estate investment by listed companies will lead to a significant reduction in their innovation investment, technical human resources investment and innovation output, which indicates that real estate investment has a significant inhibitory effect on corporate innovation. Further research has found that compared with non-first-tier cities, the real estate investment of listed companies in first-tier cities has a greater inhibitory effect on innovation investment, technical human resource investment and innovation output; compared with non-state-owned enterprises, the real estate investment of the state-owned enterprises has a smaller inhibitory effect on innovation investment, technical human resource investment and innovation output. The conclusion of the study can provide empirical evidences for the government to introduce differentiated real estate regulatory policies and innovative support policies according to the differences of the regions and the natures of corporate property rights.

A Study of the Impact of Venture Capital on Strategic Information Content：Taking GEM Listed Companies as Examples

WANG Ai-qun1, HE Zi-cong1, WANG Yi-lin2

2019, 0(01):  31. 

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Based on the data of listed companies on GEM from 2009 to 2016, this paper conducts a study on how China’s venture capital institutions affect the content of strategic information disclosed by the invest-receiving enterprises from the perspectives of whether the venture capital holds shares and whether the venture capital holds a seat at the management level. The findings show that share holding of venture capital can increase the content of strategic information disclosed by the enterprises, and this effect is more obvious when the venture capital institutions hold a seat on the board of directors or the board of supervisors. Further research shows that the dense content of strategic information disclosed by the enterprises with investments from venture capital institutions is not to hide their manipulations on earnings, which proves that the post-investment management mechanism of the venture capital institutions can play a positive role through information disclosure. This research conclusion can not only enrich the relevant literatures on influencing factors of strategic information, which is non-financial information, but also prove the influencing mechanism of venture capital on enterprise information disclosure from a new perspective.

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of European Negative Interest Rate Policy and Its Outlook: A Study Based on the Synthetic Control Method

LU Chao, SUN Ya-jing, DU Jia

2019, 0(01):  32. 

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Since the negative interest rate policy came into being, its effectiveness has attracted quite different opinions from all sectors of society. Based on the annual economic data of 33 control group countries or regions in the Euro area from 2008 to 2016, this paper applies the synthetic control method to evaluate the implementation effect of the negative interest rate policy in the Euro area from the two perspectives of inflation and economic growth. The results show that the NIRP in the Euro area has not significantly improved inflation and economic growth. It suggests that the effects of NIRP in the Euro area in promoting economic growth is very limited; the monetary authorities should not rely on this kind of non-conventional means of negative interest rate only, but also should take full advantage of other operational tools of monetary policy and adopt appropriate fiscal policies.

The Influencing Mechanism of Monetary Policy on the Term Structure of Interest Rate of National Debt: An Empirical Analysis from the Double Perspectives of Expectation Channel and the Premium Channel

GUAN Yu, WANG Xue-biao, SUN Guang-lin

2019, 0(01):  33. 

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Based on an AGDTSM model, this paper decomposes China’s treasury bond rates into interest rate expectation and risk premiums; then from the double perspectives of the expectation channel and the premium channel, it makes an empirical test on the influencing mechanism of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rate of national debt. The findings show that: Firstly, China’s present monetary policy is affecting the term structure of interest rate of national debt mainly through the expectation channel, while the effect of the premium channel is limited. Secondly, the guiding direction of the expectation channel is consistent with the target of monetary policy; the premium channel will weaken the guidance effect of the expectation channel at the initial stage of the policy. Thirdly, the expectation channel has a relatively stronger guiding strength on the short end of the treasury bond yield curve, but weaker on the long end. This difference is the fundamental cause leading to the recent“extreme planarization”of the recent treasury bond yield curve.

How Does Taxation Affect China’s National Income Distribution Pattern: An Empirical Study Based on Funds Flow Statement

PAN Wen-xuan

2019, 0(01):  34. 

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Taxation is an important factor affecting the national income distribution pattern. By making use of the data from funds flow statements (barter transaction), this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of taxation on China’s national income distribution from 1992 to 2015. The findings show that: Firstly, the degree of taxation participating in the national income distribution tends to increase in general, of which the participation degree of production tax is much higher than that of income tax. Secondly, it is the governmental departments that their income formation is most directly influenced by taxation; meanwhile, there is a relatively strong positive correlation between the impact of taxation on the income formation of non-governmental departments and their tax burden rates. Thirdly, during the process of changes of national income distribution structure, taxation is playing a critical role but not the most important cause. Lastly, the impacts of taxation on the non-financial enterprises and on the financial institutions are somewhat different. Therefore, it is necessary to raise the degree of income tax participation in the national income distribution. Differential tax adjustment measures should be adopted to regulate the income of the non-financial enterprises and the financial institutions. And the key links that can optimize the national income distribution structure should be captured.

Social Trust and Consumption Behavior: Theory and Evidence

ZHANG Hai-yang1, HAN Xiao1, GAO Yi-dan2

2019, 0(01):  35. 

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Theoretical analysis indicates that the trust of households in the society will affect their consumption behaviors. The increase of trust in other members of the society will reduce family leisure, thereby the household income and total consumption will be increased. Simultaneously, the increase of household trust can also change their substitutions among different categories of goods, which means to consume more commodities with uncertain quality and less commodities with relative stable quality. By making use of the data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper recognize the causal relationship with the instrumental variable method, and the causal relationship between trust and consumption behavior is also verified by the empirical research. The study also finds out that, compared with commodity consumption, the quality of service consumption has a higher uncertainty, therefore, the household trust can exert greater influence on service consumption, such as catering, entertainment, tourism and education, etc..

Budget Performance Reform under Medium Term Budget Framework: Logic Start Point and Path Selection

LI Hong-xia1, ZHOU Quan-lin2

2019, 0(01):  36. 

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The report at the 19th National Congress of the CPC highlighted the target for the full scale implementation of budget performance management. The budget performance reform is a significant change in the budget management system; as a standard equipment for the deepening of the medium-term budget reform, it is an important part of building a modern financial system. At present, the budget performance reform under the framework of medium-term budget is still at the exploratory stage, there exist such problems as the security system for the budget system being not sound enough, the budget performance evaluation index system that meet the scientific standards having not been really established, the range of budget performance evaluation waiting to be extended, the application of the performance evaluation results being not wide enough, and the budget performance being not well connected with government governance, etc.. If these problems are not solved in time, the process of the full scale deepening of the budget reform will be affected. Therefore, in order to explore the path of budget performance reform under the framework of medium-term budget, the budget management model can be changed from expenditure control to performance oriented, so as to complete the significant transformation from“the government keeping the wallet”to“keeping the government’s wallet”.

Institutional Innovation and the Development Cycle of Great Powers

ZHANG Jin-ming

2019, 0(01):  38. 

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Modern history shows that there is a development cycle of about 80 years in big countries. The rise and decline of such countries as Portugal, Spain, Japan, Germany, and the Soviet Union have all experienced such a cycle. The process of long-term economic development of Britain and the United States also contains many such cycles. A key factor affecting the development cycle of a country is the institutional innovation, including non-systematic institutional innovation, systematic but unsustainable institutional innovation, and systematic and sustainable institutional innovation. Among them, the institutional innovations of Portugal and Spain are mainly the development mode so as to maintain their predatoriness, which belongs to non-systematic institutional innovation, and is unsustainable after all; Japan, Germany and the Soviet Union have all carried out systematic institutional innovations, however, due to their unsustainable institutional innovations, they declined eventually. While the United Kingdom and the United States have re-launched systematic and sustainable institutional innovations every time they are faced with the danger of decline, therefore, they can continue to develop smoothly and keep strong status for a long time.