Table of Content

15 February 2012, Volume 0 Issue 02

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A Basic Framework for Theoretical Analysis of Structural Inflation: An Evidence Based on Time Varying Parameter Model of State Space

SHEN Yue

2012, 0(02):  1472. 

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This paper attempts to build a analytical framework based on the sectoral bottleneck restrain model of the real economy and the asset market equilibrium model from the monetary perspective to conduct an empirical test by making use of the time varying parameter model of state space. The results show that the agricultural sector has an obvious bottleneck and the product supply elasticity is low. When the demand is increased for a short-term, the characteristics of structural inflation because of the rising of agricultural labor and agricultural products are obvious; at the same time, when there is an excess monetary liquidity, the adequate mobility will push the structural inflation to a higher level, while the domestic currency liquidity and foreign exchange reserves will add fuel to the fire.

Speeches of Experts at 2011 China’s Annual Forum of Economists（2）

2012, 0(02):  1473. 

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An Analysis of the Issue of Inter-Industry Income Inequality in China

HUANG Yan-dong1,2

2012, 0(02):  1474. 

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After entering the new century, the inter-industry wage differentials in China is expanding continually. The regression-based Shapley-value decomposition shows that such factors as human capital, ownership system, capital investment and technology have significant influence on the inter-industry income inequality; of which the contribution of human capital to the differentials is about 45%, and the ownership system is more than 20%. Therefore, such administrative measures as equal education, increasing education returns, opening the labor market of monopoly industry, and carrying out labor negotiation system can effectively settle the problem of inter-industry wage differentials.

Inter-County Competition, Transfer Payments and Financial Debts Decision-Making at County Level: A Case Study of County A

ZHANG Jun

2012, 0(02):  1475. 

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There is a corresponding linkage mechanism among inter-county competition, transfer payments and the financial debt decision-making at county level, thereby affecting the quality of county financial development.This study indicates that the inter-county competition of Chinese style has become the incentives for the growth of county economy, there is no causal relationship between income and expenditure of the county finance, but is correlated with GDP growth. Since the implementing of the tax-sharing system, the financial negative externalities have been increasingly highlighted during the inter-county competition, the financial debts of county government is the inevitable result of the combination of the inter-county competition and the present financial incentive-restrain mechanisms. The transfer payments cannot always generate positive incentive effects on the county financial behaviors, on the contrary, it intensifies the level of inter-county competition; therefore, to borrow debts excessively is the strategic choices of the county government towards the incentive transfer payment.

On the Economic Growth Effects of Japanese Government Financial Spending and the Inspirations

GONG Hui

2012, 0(02):  1476. 

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There is a certain correlation between government financial expenditure and economic growth, but ideas differ at which is the cause or the result. Through a cointegration analysis between Japanese government expenditure and economic growth during 1956-2008 and a Granger causality test, it is found that there exists a stable long-term positive cointegration relationship and an one-way causal relationship between the financial investment expenditure and financial consumer spending of Japanese government and the economic growth; economic growth is the Granger cause of the growth of financial expenditure, while the financial expenditure, whether investment or consumer, is not the Granger cause of economic growth. Starting from this conclusion, China should draw lessons from Japan's experience in implementing the proactive fiscal policy by controlling the size, optimizing the structure, ensuring quality and improving efficiency.

A Study of International Carbon Financial Market Development and Risks in the Context of Low-Carbon Economy

LIN Li

2012, 0(02):  1477. 

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With the continuous global focus on climate issues, the development of carbon financial market is also increasingly attracting the attention of all countries. Compared with the traditional finance, the core of carbon finance is extending around carbon emission right. Therefore, carbon finance, in its essence, is correlated with low-carbon economy. At present, the international carbon financial market has such characteristics as rapid increase of carbon trading volume, trading that is based on quota absolutely holding a leading place, wide range of market players, carbon financial products being diversified, EU holding the dominate place and Euro becoming the major currency of settlement, etc. At the same time, it has both the systematic and non-systematic risks. China should not only take an active part in the international carbon financial market, but also deal with the state strategic issues of climate changes from the global perspective, including strengthening the publicity, cultivating the intermediary institutions, expanding policy support, improving the capability of risk prevention, and so on.

Housing Price, Taylor Rule and Macro-Economy Regulation: A Test Based on China’s Macro-Economic Data 2000-2010

MENG Cai-yun

2012, 0(02):  1478. 

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Whether the central bank should regulate the formulation of monetary policy against the housing price has been the focus of the researchers, but no consensus has been reached yet. Based on China’s quarterly economic data from 2000 to 2010, this paper performs a comparative test of the applicability of Taylor rule and the standard Taylor rule that is blended in the housing price to the formulation of China’s monetary policy to regulate macro-economy. The empirical results show that the interest rate policy formulated according to the standard Taylor rule can lower the value of the central bank’s loss function and raise the effectiveness of interest rate policy. This result indicates that under the circumstance of the fluctuation of housing prices not affecting the stability of commodity prices and economic growth, the central bank should not regulate the housing price. In other words, before the central bank is going to perform regulation on the macro-economy by formulating the interest rate policy, it should consider the correlation between the fluctuation of housing prices and inflation and output and judge its potential influence on the policy targets.

An Analysis of the Ability of Overseas Subsidiary and the Fitness of Its Strategic Roles with the Arrangement of the Board of Directors

YUAN Hong-lin

2012, 0(02):  1479. 

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The growth of the ability of overseas subsidiary is the internal factor driving the changing of its strategic roles. From the point of the agency relationship between the parent and subsidiary companies and the ability of the enterprise, there exists an internal and inevitable connection between the strategic roles of the subsidiary and the arrangement of its board of directors. The overseas subsidiary with different strategic roles and the arrangement of the board of directors should consider both minimizing the agency cost and increasing the abilities of the subsidiary, namely, when making arrangement of the board of directors according to the agency arrangement between the parent and subsidiary companies, it should also been considered, from the perspective of ability, how to improve the strategic performance of the subsidiary through the arrangement of the board of directors.

The Brand Value of China’s Car Industry and its Dynamic Changing Trend:An Empirical Analysis Based on Hedonic Price Model

WANG Hao

2012, 0(02):  1480. 

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The brand value of China’s car industry is in the trend of dynamic changes. After controlling the product differentiation characteristics, foreign brands have significant premium over local brands, but the premium is decreasing year after year. Among the four major classes of brands of different countries, the European brands have significant premium, however, the premium is decreasing year after year; among the ten kinds of enterprise brands, six enterprises have significant brand premium, one has significant reduced brand price, while the other brands are not obvious. The relation between the model characteristics and prices is not the simple linear relation, but a U-shape relation. These research results will be helpful in helping us understand the adjustments made by the local enterprises on the development strategy of the proprietary brands.

Regional Differences and Convergence of Carbon Intensity Distribution in China: Based on an Empirical Study of Provincial Data 1995-2009

YANG Qian

2012, 0(02):  1481. 

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By adopting the IPCC method to estimate the provincial carbon dioxide emissions from 1995 to 2009 in China, this paper measures the regional differences of the carbon intensity distribution in China and conducts a structural decomposition according to the four major regions of east, middle, west and northeast. At the same time, it makes use of the convergence testing method from the theory of economic growth to perform a convergence test on the regional differences of China’s carbon intensity. The study finds that: (1) Generally speaking, the distribution of China’s carbon intensity has obvious regional differences and the differences come mainly from the inside of the four major regions; of which the central region has the greatest influence on the overall difference of carbon intensity, while the impact of the western region on the overall differences is increasing.（2）The results of the estimate with the panel data and cross-sectional data show that there is neither absolute β convergence nor conditional β convergence existing in China’s carbon intensity regional distribution from 1995 to 2009, even no obvious σ convergence. The above conclusion indicates that China’s carbon intensity will not automatically reduce to the steady state, the government policy intervention to reduce carbon emissions will be essential.

Is China’s Regional Economy Converging? A Re-examination Based on Time Series

DU Li-yong

2012, 0(02):  1482. 

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Based on the GDP data during 1952-2009 and by adopting the stochastic convergence and β convergence testing methods developed recently, this paper tries to analyze the evolution tendency of China’s regional economic gaps. If the structural mutation is considered, the proofs of both stochastic convergence and β convergence can be found in half of Chinese provinces during the period after the breaking point, and there will be more evidence of β convergence when the breaking point is endogenous. The eastern region and most provinces in the central region have the same growth route, forming their own clubs. Luckily, in recent years, the higher level of average income of the eastern provinces than that of the whole country is mitigated to some extent; while some provinces in the central region are also narrowing the gap between themselves and the national average level; around half of western provinces have the same growth route, part of them also have the tendency of narrowing the gap. All of them show that the regional coordination policy since 2000 has reached its expected goal to some degree.

Government Control, Revenue Manipulation and Realization Level of Operating Revenue Plan: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

WAN Peng

2012, 0(02):  1483. 

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Based on the data of China’s listed companies，this empirical study finds that the more revenue manipulation of the company, the higher the realization level of its operating revenue plan. The degree of revenue manipulation in government controlled companies has greater effect on the realization level of operating revenue plan with respect to that of the non-government controlled companies. Besides, the realization level of the operating revenue plan has a positive correlation with the industry average growth rate of the operating revenue, the proportion of shares held by the controlling shareholders as well as the occurrence of mergers and acquisitions.

A Study of the Causes of Large Amount Cash Holding of China’s Listed Companies: Financing Restraint Theory or Principal-Agent Theory

SONG Chang

2012, 0(02):  1484. 

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There are mainly two theories that explain the corporate behavior of large amount cash holding: the financing restraint theory and the principal-agent theory. This paper makes use of the sample data of China’s listed companies to conduct multi-angle examinations and empirical tests. It is found that the companies holding large amount of cashes have such characteristics as high profitability, sound development, less dividend payment, low managerial ownership and less agency cost, etc. Through the group test of financing restraint, it is found that the companies with higher financing restrains have a significant positive cash-cash flow sensitivity, and the financing restraints force the listed companies to have stronger cash accumulating tendency and preference. The empirical study indicates that compared with the principal-agent theory, the financing restraint theory is more appropriate to explain the large amount cash holding behaviors of China’s listed companies.