Contemporary Finance & Economics

An Analysis of China's Industrial Economy Operation in 2019 and Its Outlook in 2020

ZHANG Hang-yan, SHI Dan

2020, 0(5): 3-12.

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In 2019, China's industrial economy as a whole exhibited the operation characteristics of “production slowing down and structural optimization”. The specific performances were the slowdown in industrial production growth, the decline in corporate profitability, the acceleration of new and old kinetic energy conversion, and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The insufficient financing capacity of the manufacturing industry, the great pressure to reduce consumption in the central and western regions and the insufficient and unbalanced regional industrial development are the outstanding problems facing the current industrial economy operation. In 2020, the environment and situation both at home and abroad will be severe and complicated; China's industrial economy will still face many hidden worries and challenges, as well as greater downward pressure. China's industrial economic development should fully reflect the idea of combining short-term positive response with medium and long-term reform and development. On the one hand, we should expand demand and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the industrial economy. On the other hand, we should continue to maintain strategic determination and strategic patience, deepen supply-side structural reform, and make every effort to promote the high-quality development of the industrial economy.

Retrospect and Prospect of the Macro-Control Policies in the 70 Years of New China

YANG Fei-hu, YANG Yang

2020, 0(5): 13-25.

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Great remarkable economic growth achievements have been made during the 70 years of new China, which is due to its effective macro-control policies. Based on the retrospect of the economic cycle and the five-year plans during the 70 years of new China, this paper summarizes and reviews the historical context, characteristics in different times and the implementation effect of the macro-control policies in the 70 years of new China. The findings show that the macro-control policy should be based on the actual national conditions and should follow the objective laws of economic development, and that the system of macro-control policy should possess authority and independence. The macro-control policy should adhere to the flexible and measured fiscal policies and the stable yet neutral monetary policies; its focus is achieving reasonable management and control of the investment and the currency, the difficulty is effectively controlling the ambitious development in advance and the excessive intervention behavior of the government, and the target is the regulation and guidance of the healthy and smooth operation of the national economy in a prospective way. Finally, combined with the optimization and perfection of the macro-control policies in the New Era, this paper further puts forward some suggestions: such as the orientation of the macro-control policies should advance and improve the supply-side structural reform in a prospective way, the core aim of the macro-control policy should be positioned at“sustainable and balanced development”, the target of the macro-control policy should be focused on improving total factor productivity and the return on macro investment, and so on.

The Viewpoint of Economy and Taxation and Its Expansion: Tax Awareness Month with Chinese Characteristics

DENG Li-ping

2020, 0(5): 26-34.

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The Tax Awareness Month is the product of socialist tax practice with Chinese characteristics. Its practice and evolution of the theme can be understood in the viewpoint and its expansion of the interaction between economy and taxation. Based on a brief review of the basic connotation of the viewpoint and its expansion, this paper interprets the interrelation among economy, society, politics and taxation revealed by the themes and practices of the Tax Awareness Month over the years, with the emphasis on the important contribution of China's strong tax staff in the new era. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions from four aspects on the positioning and future development of the Tax Awareness Month.

A Study on the Influence of Improving Budget Transparency on Local Fiscal Expenditure Performance: New Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method

LIU Rong, XIONG Yang, JIANG Xian-deng

2020, 0(5): 35-47.

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It is required in the reports of the 19th National Congress of CPC and the new Budget Law that the government departments at all levels shall further improve budget transparency, and make specific provisions on budget openness and transparency. Will the improvement in budget transparency restrain local fiscal expenditure and improve local fiscal expenditure performance? By employing the synthetic control method, this paper tries to evaluate the influence of non-transparent budget on local fiscal expenditure performance by taking the events of unpublicized budget and final accounting information in Fujian Province in 2014 and 2015 as the natural experiments. The results show that it can be more objective and quantitative to evaluate the policy effect of budget transparency on local fiscal expenditure performance by simulating the fiscal expenditure performance before budget openness through weighing the multiple controlled objects. The findings show that there is a positive correlation between budget transparency and local fiscal expenditure performance. Compared with other provinces, an un-fully transparent budget can make the fiscal expenditure performance decline. Therefore, in order to improve budget transparency, it is necessary to actively promote the process of information disclosure at the grassroots units, give full play to the budget review and supervision functions of the people's congress, build a budget expenditure standard system as soon as possible, and expand the participation of the public in budget supervision.

The Facts behind the Increase of Financial Industry's Share in GDP: From the Perspective of the Structural Decomposition of the Input-Output Table

FENG Ming, YAN Bing-qian

2020, 0(5): 48-61.

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Based on the data of the input-output table, this paper conducts an expanded structural decomposition analysis (SDA) on the intertemporal changes of the financial industry's added value in China's GDP. It is found that the intermediate input structural factor is the main factor resulted in the increasing of China's financial industry in GDP during the period of 2005 to 2015, the contribution close to 40%. The proportion of the financial industry's output used for the intermediate input is significantly higher than that in other countries such as the United States and Japan; moreover, nearly all industries saw a significant increase in the demand for the intermediate input of financial service sector during the sample period. The results of the further comparative study of financial industry expansion during the three typical periods show that the driving factors of the financial industry expansion have certain structural differences under different macroeconomic situations and policy environments. This study can help the literatures to understand more deeply the mechanism of the structural expansion of the financial sector in China's economy during the past period.

The Impact of Financial Industry Openness on Chinese Commercial Banks' Profits and Risks

CHENG Xiao-qing, GE Lu-lan, JIN Hong-fei

2020, 0(5): 62-75.

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Based on the unbalanced panel data of 113 commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2017, this paper employs the SYS-GMM method to study the impact of financial industry openness on the profits and risks of China's commercial banks. The results show that the opening of the financial industry has increased the competitiveness of the banking industry and reduced the profit margins of banks. Moreover, the non-state banks and non-listed banks are more affected in their profit margins; small banks are more susceptible to the opening of financial industry than large banks. The opening of financial industry has increased bank risks, and the higher the bank's profit margin, the heavier the risk burden will be. Further research also finds out that the higher the degree of competition in deposits, the more mature the market, the smaller the impact of the opening of financial industry on bank profit and risks. Therefore, during the process of promoting the opening of financial industry, it is necessary to focus on the steady operation of the small banks, strengthen the supervision of the banking industry, prevent excessive risk taking of the baking industry caused by competition, and continue to improve interest rate liberalization.

A Study of the Impact of Humble Leadership on Employees' Helping Behavior

LUO Wen-hao, CHEN Jia-ying

2020, 0(5): 76-86.

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In recent years, the impact of humble leadership on employees' work behaviors and attitudes has received much attention. As a leadership that pays more attention to employees' opinions and development, humble leadership may promote employees to exhibit more pro-social helping behaviors. Based on the social exchange theory, this paper makes an analysis of 257 pieces of multi-time point data and examines the mediating effect of trust in supervisors between humble leadership and employees' helping behavior and the moderating effect of perceived organizational support. The results suggest that trust in supervisor can play a mediating role between the humble leadership and employee's helping behavior. And employees' perceived organizational support can moderate the impacts of employees' trust in supervisor on employees' helping behavior in a positive way. Meanwhile, employees' perceived organizational support can also positively moderate the indirect effect of humble leadership on employees' helping behavior through trust in supervisors; whereas the moderating effect of trust in supervisors in the indirect effect of humble leadership on employees' passive helping behaviors is not significantly. The study of the relationship between humble leadership and employees' helping behavior can help to deepen the discussion of mechanism of humble leadership and offer implications on how to motivate employees' helping behavior.

A Study of the Influence of Dual Innovation on Value Co-Creation under Enterprise Innovation Ecosystem

ZHAO Yan

2020, 0(5): 87-99.

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In recent years, innovative ecosystems and value co-creation have gradually become one of the focused issues among scholars. At present, the number of empirical studies on enterprise innovation ecosystem from the perspective of dual innovation is rather limited, and its internal mechanism has not been clearly explored. Based on the theory of innovation ecosystem and the theory of value co-creation, this paper introduces the adjustment variable of dual innovation to construct a relationship model of enterprise innovation ecosystem, dual innovation and value co-creation. Then it conducts an empirical analysis with the survey data of 189 enterprises in the information industry. The results show that enterprise innovation ecosystem has a significant positive impact on dual innovation, that the enterprise innovation ecosystem has a significant positive impact on value co-creation, that dual innovation has a significant positive impact on value co-creation, and that dual innovation can play a positive moderating role in the impact of enterprise innovation ecosystem on value co-creation.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firms Export Products Quality: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Micro-Data of Chinese Industrial Firms

XIE Shen-xiang, FENG Yu-jing

2020, 0(5): 100-111.

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It is of great significance to evaluate the economic effects of economic policy uncertainty in order to fully understand the role of economic policy. By employing a cross-border data model, this paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on export product quality of firms. The finding show that the increase of domestic economic policy uncertainty would increase the variable costs of corporate production and decrease the fixed investment of the enterprises, which goes against the corporate efforts to improve the quality of their export products. If the economic policy uncertainty in export destination countries increases, the export enterprises would overcome the adverse effects resulted from the increased export fixed costs due to the increased economic policy uncertainty in destination countries through the improvement of the export product quality. In addition, the influence of economic policy uncertainty on export products quality of firms also reveals a certain degree of heterogeneity.

Has Embedded Global Value Chain Promoted the Industrial Structure Rationalization? A Study Based on 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities of China

LI Hong, ZHENG Jing, CAO Qing-feng

2020, 0(5): 112-122.

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With the continuous deepening of the global value chain division system, the global value chain embedding has exerted great impact on the rationalization of China's industrial structure. The theoretical analysis indicates that the global value chain embedding has a human resource reallocation effect and a technology diffusion effect on the rationalization of industrial structure. On this basis, by combining China Customs database and China Industrial Firms database from 2006 to 2013, this paper calculates the embedding degree in global value chains of 70 large and medium-sized cities. The results of the empirical test show that the global value chain embedding has significantly promoted the rationalization of China's industrial structure, and this conclusion is also tenable in the sub-samples of different regions and different cities. The findings of further testing on the mechanism show that the global value chain embedding has improved the rationalization of industrial structure through promotion of human capital reallocation and technology diffusion. Hence, to promote the embedding degree in global value chain is of great importance in the promotion of the rationalization of China's industrial structure.

Can Setting up the Party Organizations in Private Enterprises Promote Their Participation in the Guangcai Program? Based on the Micro-Date of the 11th National Private Enterprises Survey

YUAN Dong-liang, ZHOU Jian

2020, 0(5): 123-134.

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The Guangcai program is an activity by which private enterprises respond to the call of the state and promote the economic development and social progress in science, education, culture and health of poor areas through donations and many other forms. Based on the data from the 11th national survey of private enterprises, this paper conducts an empirical test of the influence of setting up Party organizations in private enterprises on the participation in the Guangcai program. The findings show that private enterprises that have set up Party organizations are more likely to participate in the Guangcai program, that is, setting up Party organizations in private enterprises can promote private enterprises to participate in the Guangcai program. The mechanism test shows that setting up Party organizations in private enterprises can affect private enterprises' participation in the Guangcai program through two channels, i.e., the entrepreneurs' self-awareness and the education by the united front.

Tax Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Debt Financing Decision-Making

JIN Yu, WEN Wen

2020, 0(5): 135-147.

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By employing the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017, this paper empirically tests the impact of tax policy uncertainty on the scale of corporate debt financing. The findings show that the uncertainty of taxation policies has significantly reduced the scale of corporate debt financing, and this impact is more significant in the enterprises with higher degrees of financing constraints and less external demands. The results of further research shows that the uncertainty of tax policy would increase the costs of corporate debt financing and reduce the scale of short-term corporate credit financing, while no significant impact on the scale of long-term credit financing. The findings of the mechanism test indicate that the impact of tax policy uncertainty on the scale of debt financing is caused by the fluctuations in corporate cash flow.

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