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    The Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy of Treasury Yield Curve: Theoretical Mechanism and China's Experiences
    GUAN Yu, WANG Xue-biao
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2022, 0 (1): 53-65.  
    Abstract354)      PDF(pc) (949KB)(646)       Save
    The continuous accumulation of downward pressure in the global economy indicates that China may stay in a low interest rate environment for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the guidance of monetary policy for the treasury yield curve, so as to let long-term interest rate play the role of regulation. The results of the theoretical analysis show that China's current monetary policy framework has possessed the operational conditions to transmit to the treasury yield curve through the signaling channel and the portfolio balance channel. The empirical results further confirm the effectiveness of the two channels in the transmission. Specifically, the transmission effect through the signaling channel is stronger than that through the portfolio balance channel. The role of the signaling channel is short-term, and its direction is consistent with the goal of monetary policy; while the role of the portfolio balance channel is long-term, its direction is opposite to the goal of monetary policy in the short term, and is consistent with the goal of monetary policy in the medium and long term. The transmission effect of the two channels is weaker in the easing period of monetary policy, but stronger in the tightening period of monetary policy, which shows significant asymmetric characteristics. It is suggested that the People's Bank of China should optimize the monetary policy transmission mechanism of both the signaling channel and the portfolio balance channel and open up the interest rate transmission path with the treasure yield curve as the core.
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    Guaranteed Redemption, Expectations of Implicit Guarantee, and the Yields from Bank Wealth Management Products
    SUN Xi-fang, LIU Li-yu
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2022, 0 (1): 66-77.  
    Abstract356)      PDF(pc) (933KB)(258)       Save
    It is of great significance to study the mechanism of the impact of investors' expectation of implicit guarantee on the yields from bank financial products under the guaranteed redemption environment. By making use of the micro data of WMPs issued by 225 commercial banks, this paper conducts an empirical test. The findings show that, firstly, the investors' expectations of implicit guarantee are not strong enough to make them completely ignore the risks of WMPs, so the yields on WMPs still reflect their risks; secondly, the higher the possibility of government bearing implicit guarantee for banks, the stronger the investors' expectations of implicit guarantee, so that the lower the excess yields on WMPs, the lower the sensitivity of excess yields on WMPs to their risks; thirdly, the New Asset Management Regulation is helpful to weaken the investors' expectations of implicit guarantee, which reduces the distortion of the possibility of government's implicit guarantee for banks on the risk pricing of bank WMPs. So the New Asset Management Regulation has reduced the distortive effect that the possibility of government implicit guarantee for banks has exerted on the pricing of risks on WMPs. Therefore, it is recommended that the regulations on removing the guaranteed redemption of the New Asset Management Regulation should be fully implemented, that the investors' risk awareness should be strengthened and their capability to identify risks should be improved, and that government implicit guarantee for banks should be gradually removed.
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