Contemporary Finance & Economics ›› 2018, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (05): 130-.

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A Study of the Impact of Monetary Policy Transparency on the Deviation of Inflation Expectation

TAN Tian-jiao, Li Gen   

  1. (Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Beijing 100142, China)
  • Received:2018-01-29 Published:2021-01-21

Abstract: Through the hypothesis of loosening the rational expectations and by introducing a biased expectation to construct a non-perfect expectation model, this paper adopts the SVAR model to investigate whether there is a consistence of the impacts of the structure shock of monetary policy transparency on the expected deviation fluctuation under the two operational frameworks of monetary policy. The result indicates that whether the improvement of the transparency of monetary policy is conducive to reducing the expected deviation is related to the extent of the deviation of the actual inflation rate from the equilibrium inflation rate. Meanwhile, under the monetary policy framework of price type, the improvement of monetary policy transparency can anchor inflation expectations and reduce the deviation of inflation expectations more effectively; while under the monetary policy framework of scalar type, the deviation of inflation expectation has less stickiness to the policy instruments, and the monetary aggregate has a stronger influence on the deviation of inflation expectation than that under the monetary policy of framework of price type. To this end, in order to guide the public expectations to form a joint force with policy, the transparency of monetary policy should be strengthened when using the price instrument; and in order to give full play to the policy instruments in the counter-cyclical adjustment, the transparency of monetary policy should be weakened when using the scalar-type instruments.

Key words: monetary policy instrument; transparency of monetary policy; deviation of inflation expectation; SVAR model