Table of Content

15 May 2018, Volume 0 Issue 05

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An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Establishment of Financial Companies by Enterprise Groups: Based on PSM

TONG Chao, LI Bao-yu, HUANG Xian-huan

2018, 0(05):  123. 

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By making use of the data of the combined financial statements of China’s holding listed companies of enterprise groups during the period of 2013-2015, this paper employs the PSM method to empirically test the effectiveness of the establishment of financial companies by the enterprise groups. The findings show that the establishment of financial companies by enterprise groups would significantly increase the current financial risks, the operational risks and the comprehensive risks in the listed companies, while no significant impact on their performance and financing constraints. Furthermore, in the second year after the establishment of the financial companies, the financial risks, the operational risks and the comprehensive risks of the holding listed companies of enterprise groups are more or less decreased, while the performance is more or less increased, but there still exist significant differences in financing constraints.

A Financial Analysis of the Rising Economic Fluctuation under L-Type Adjustment

YU Bo

2018, 0(05):  124. 

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When entering the L-type adjustment, Chinese economy has formed an anomaly of the co-existence of slowing down and fluctuation. From the perspective of enterprise operational leverage, this paper tries to explain the micro mechanism behind the co-existence of slowing down and fluctuation based on the panel threshold model of A share industrial enterprises. The findings show that along with the expansion of production capacity, the enterprise operating leverage will take on nonlinear evolution characteristics from negative to positive. Compared with the non-excess industries, the operational leverage of the industries with excess production capacity is higher; the fluctuation is more obvious under the same demand shock. The contraction of production capacity due to insufficient demand in the period of economic recession drives the operating leverage to advance gradually into infinity, which amplifies the impact of demand fluctuation on the profit and results in the increase of the fluctuation range at the macro level instead of decrease.

Contract Incompleteness, Intra-Product International Division of Labor and Real Trade Gains of China’s Manufacturing Industry

JIANG Han-ming

2018, 0(05):  125. 

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In the real world, the impact of the widely existed contractual incompleteness on the intra-product international division and the resulting distribution pattern of trade profits is active and far-reaching. On the basis of Antras and Chor (2013) and from the perspective of the intermediate suppliers of the developing countries, this paper puts forward a theoretical hypothesis of how to achieve the distribution maximization of the trade gains in the value chain, and then it employs the transnational panel data to conduct an empirical test on the relative theoretical hypothesis. The findings show that: (1) for the production networks in the alternative value chain, the embedding of China’s manufacturing industry close to the upstream position in the global value chain is conductive to the improvement of trade gains; (2) the efficiency of contract enforcement in different regions and the contract intensity in different industries have a significant interactive effect on the distribution pattern of trade profits in China’s manufacturing industries; (3) compared with the complementary type, in the production network of the alternative value chain, the position of industry global value chain has a more significantly positive impact on the real trade profits hidden in the final products.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Profit Changes of Export Enterprises: An Empirical Analysis Based on Sino-US Trade

WANG Ya-nan

2018, 0(05):  126. 

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The profit of export enterprises is easily affected by the trade policy environment. This paper uses the data of Chinese micro enterprises from 2000 to 2006 to conduct an empirical study of the short-term and long-term influences of the trade policy uncertainty on the profit levels of the export enterprises. The findings show that, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, the decrease of trade policy uncertainty can significantly promote the profitability of the export enterprises, trade openness is an important intermediary transmission mechanism. Specifically, the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the profit rate of the export enterprises follows the law of marginal evolution in the spatial distribution; while in the time dimension, the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the net profit growth rate of the export enterprises is mainly realized through the channel of “improving profit creation.”

Enterprise Life Cycle, Competitive Strategy and Risk Taking

MA Ning, WANG Lei

2018, 0(05):  127. 

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Taking the A share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2005 to 2015 as the samples, this paper analyzes the affecting mechanisms and function effects of the choice of competitive strategies on the risk-taking level of enterprises under different business life cycles. The results show that the choice of competitive strategies of the enterprises can produce different risk-taking level. Compared with the cost leadership strategy, the differentiation strategy can significantly improve the enterprise risk-taking level. Under the different life cycles, the enterprise risk-taking level is lower during the growth period, and higher during the recession period. When measuring the horizontal and vertical risk-taking level, the impact of the competitive strategy on the vertical risk-taking level is more significant than that on the horizontal risk-taking level. When an enterprise is going from the growth period to the decline period, the influence of the competition strategy on the enterprise risk-taking will present a trend of change from lower to higher. This conclusion has enriched the research scope of strategic management and enterprise risk-taking and has provided realistic support to the effective formulation of strategic planning and investment decisions of the enterprise management.

Will the Rise of Housing Price Affect Firms’ Human Capital Investment Decisions?

WANG Sheng

2018, 0(05):  128. 

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Currently, the researches related to human capital and housing price are centered around the macro field, mainly focusing on how the accumulation and promotion of urban human capital driving up urban housing prices and what reaction to the human capital brought by the housing prices. However, little research efforts have been made on the micro level, such as the impact of the rising housing price on the enterprise investment decisions on human capital. Based on the researches of the related literatures, this article sorts out several paths of the impact of housing prices on human capital investment, deals with the data of Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2014 with various models, and conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of housing price on the enterprise investment decisions on human capital from the three dimensions, i.e., the relative intensity, the absolute intensity and per capita investment intensity. The results show that there is a complicated relationship between enterprise human capital investment and housing price: the housing price is negatively affecting the human capital investment, the increase of housing price has a positive effect on it, but the comprehensive result is still negative. At the same time, the R&D investment can have a partial mediating effect in the relationship between the housing prices and the firms’ human capital investment.

Research on Risk Spillover Effect of Financial Institutions Based on the Mechanisms of Different Market States

CHEN Wei-hong, TANG Zhen-peng, ZHOU Xi-wen

2018, 0(05):  129. 

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The systematic financial risk has been a hot issue in the theoretic cycle and the practical circle. Starting from the three market states, i.e., tranquility, normality and vibration, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the spillover effects of systematic financial risks among Chinese insurance, banking, securities and fund industries through constructing static and dynamic SDSVaR models with the method of two-stage quantile regression. Meanwhile, it uses the impulse response function to depict the direction, intensity and duration of the risk spillover. The findings show that the spillover effects of systematic financial risks among the financial institutions presents an asymmetry under the static SDSVaR model; while under the dynamic SDSVaR model, the risk spillover effect among the financial institutions is consistent with the trend of the stock markets, and the SDSVaR model seems to response more sensitively to the crisis during the period of volatile market. Under the impact of the same equivalent level, the risk spillover effect in the volatile market state is the strongest of all, of which the spillover effect from the fund industry ranks the first, followed by the banking and insurance industries, and the security industry is the weakest. It is necessary to keep a heightened alertness of the negative impact of the economic shock on the financial institutions, steadily promote the mixed operation of the financial institutions, strengthen the macro and prudence regulation in an all around way, and give full play to the regulators in their role of functional regulations.

A Study of the Impact of Monetary Policy Transparency on the Deviation of Inflation Expectation

TAN Tian-jiao, Li Gen

2018, 0(05):  130. 

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Through the hypothesis of loosening the rational expectations and by introducing a biased expectation to construct a non-perfect expectation model, this paper adopts the SVAR model to investigate whether there is a consistence of the impacts of the structure shock of monetary policy transparency on the expected deviation fluctuation under the two operational frameworks of monetary policy. The result indicates that whether the improvement of the transparency of monetary policy is conducive to reducing the expected deviation is related to the extent of the deviation of the actual inflation rate from the equilibrium inflation rate. Meanwhile, under the monetary policy framework of price type, the improvement of monetary policy transparency can anchor inflation expectations and reduce the deviation of inflation expectations more effectively; while under the monetary policy framework of scalar type, the deviation of inflation expectation has less stickiness to the policy instruments, and the monetary aggregate has a stronger influence on the deviation of inflation expectation than that under the monetary policy of framework of price type. To this end, in order to guide the public expectations to form a joint force with policy, the transparency of monetary policy should be strengthened when using the price instrument; and in order to give full play to the policy instruments in the counter-cyclical adjustment, the transparency of monetary policy should be weakened when using the scalar-type instruments.

A Study of the Local Social Governance Innovation Based on the Logic of Life Cycle and Institutional Changes

LI Xiao-yan

2018, 0(05):  131. 

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The new era calls for a new pattern of social governance innovation. Since the Party’s 18th National Congress, along with the overall advancement of social governance, the drive for the local social governance innovation has been reduced, and the effectiveness and sustainability of social governance innovations have been insufficient, and the problems such as “fragmented innovation” and “convergent innovation” have become increasingly prominent. The innovation of social governance is now trapped in a dilemma, which is in urgent need of the attention of the related scholars and the problem-oriented researches. It has certain logic self-consistency to study social governance innovation with local government innovation as an intermediate variable with the help of the theory of life cycle and the theory of institutional changes. Therefore, the reconstruction of the paths for local social governance innovation can be promoted by the two dimensions of strengthening the governments’ innovation capability (compulsory institutional changes) and building a social governance structure of shared governance and shared enjoyment (inductive institutional changes). The creation of community innovation in G district is a typical case of social governance innovation. By analyzing the construction of the community in G districts, it can help us once again to review the logic of social governance innovation from the small to the big.

Scale, Profit and Firm Boundary: The Theory of Enterprise Growth under the Economic Equilibrium Paradigm

WANG Ying

2018, 0(05):  132. 

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The traditional mainstream economics has not established a specific theory and model on the issue of the enterprise growth, but from the theory of competition to the theory of uncertainty and to the transaction cost theory, all of them have studied some important factors affecting the growth of enterprises. The theory of competition uses the variable of scale to measure the profit maximization of an enterprise; the theory of uncertainty regards profit as the important aspect of the growth of an enterprise, which can explain how profit comes from uncertainty; the issue of firm boundary studied by the transaction cost theory can explain the boundary of the growth of an enterprise and this boundary depends on the size of the transaction cost. The economic theories choose such variables as scale, profit and transaction cost to explore the issue of enterprise profit maximization, which has a strong theoretical explanatory power, but it is not sufficient enough to explain the growth of an enterprise simply by using these variables as the fundamental motive causes. This is decided by the research paradigm of economic equilibrium. The research paradigm of economic equilibrium focus on the compromise to dilemma conflicts in business behaviors, not the driving mechanism of the growth of an enterprise; this is the basic reason why under the equilibrium paradigm only the production model is built but not the growth model.

The Effects of Local Government Fiscal Expenditure on Factor Endowment Structure Upgrading

YANG De-qian, LIU Ren-ji

2018, 0(05):  133. 

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The third industrial structure upgrading is one of the manifestations of the upgrading of the industrial structures, but its essence is the upgrading of the factor endowment structure. The industrial structure upgrading effect of the fiscal expenditure is mainly realized through the transmission path that acts on the factor endowment structure. By making use of the panel data of 31 provinces in China during the period of 2011-2015, this paper conducts an empirical test of the effect of the factor endowment structure upgrading of the financial expenditure of local governments. The results show that the role of educational expenditure in upgrading the factor endowment structure has not been fully realized, and the expenditure effect is lagging behind. Due to the poor originality of local scientific and technological innovation, the promotion effect of science and technology expenditure is thus limited. The purely exhaustive expenditure attribute of the general public service expenditure has determined its negative effect. The government investment expenditure has significant inhibitory effect, which may be due to the excessive government intervention. In this regard, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of regulatory ideas. Specifically, it is necessary to achieve a shift from total expenditure control to expenditure structural optimization, increase the coupling degree between expenditure structure and industrial structure, and further expand the industrial R&D effect.

How does Opportunity Inequality Affect Technical Efficiency? From the Perspective of Social Capital

CHEN Xiao-dong, ZHANG Wei-dong

2018, 0(05):  134. 

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On the basis of the quantitative measure of the technical inefficiency and the opportunity inequality at provincial level in China, this paper explores the impact of opportunity inequality on technical efficiency from the perspective of social capital. The results show that opportunity inequality has a significant negative impact on technical efficiency. In addition, after testing the relationship between opportunity inequality and social capital, it is found that opportunity inequality has a significant negative effect on social justice, and this negative effect is mainly reflected in the groups with poorer family background and higher personal income. The negative effect of opportunity inequality on social trust is mainly reflected in the groups with higher personal income at present; however, opportunity inequality has no significant impact on regional crime rate. Further research shows that social capital has a significant positive impact on technical efficiency, thus it confirms the intermediary role of social capital in the impact of opportunity inequality on technical efficiency.