Abstract: Against the backdrop of the spreading de-globalization and the rising trade protectionism, scientifically assessing the macroeconomic transmission mechanisms of tariff shocks and exploring effective response paths have significant theoretical value and policy relevance. By constructing an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model embedded with financial frictions and firm heterogeneity, and utilizing structural estimation based on Chinese industrial enterprise data, this study systematically quantifies the impact of tariff shocks on China’s economic growth and its underlying transmission logic. The findings indicate that the magnitude of the impact depends on the persistence of the shock; specifically, the negative effects of permanent tariff shocks are significantly greater than those of temporary ones. Structurally, tariff shocks exert a more pronounced negative influence on exports than on domestic output. The mechanism analysis further reveals that ignoring financial frictions will lead to a significant underestimation of the negative impact on China’s economic growth. Financial frictions will amplify the adverse effects of tariff shocks through a“financial accelerator”mechanism: declining profits, shrinking net worth, tightened financing constraints, contracting investment. Policy simulations suggest that reducing trade costs, promoting technological progress, and deepening regional economic cooperation can effectively counteract tariff shocks.

Key words: tariff shocks, financial frictions, economic growth, heterogeneous firms