Nonlinear Spillover Effects of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Technological Innovation

Abstract

Abstract: The economic policy uncertainty of the technology leading countries can produce spillover effects on the scientific and technological innovation of the technology following countries through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel. The direction of the spillover effects depends on the influencing mechanism of the EPU of the technology leading country and the technology following country on the domestic scientific and technological innovation. On the basis of a nonlinear threshold GVAR model, this paper studies the non-linear spillovereffect of the EPU of USA on the scientific and technological innovation of China. The results show that as a whole the EPU of USA can suppress the scientific and technological innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel, and that the inhibiting effect is greaterin the low growth mechanism. In terms of different industries, the EPU of USA in its industries with more innovative advantages can have negative spillover effects on China’s industrial innovation mainly through the technology following channel; among which, the inhibiting effect is greater in the low growth mechanism. In the industries of USA with relative innovative advantages, the EPU of USA can have spillover effects on the industrial innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel; among which, the positive effects are smaller in the high growth mechanism and the negative effects are greater in the low growth mechanism. As for the industries of China with innovative advantages, the EPU of USA can produce spillover effects on the industrial innovation through the uncertainty inducing channel; among which,the spillover effect is not clear in the high growth mechanism, and the negative spillover effect is obvious in the low growth mechanism.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, scientific and technological innovation, spillover channels, spillover effects

CLC Number:

F015

CHEN Pu, OUYANG Zhi-gang. Nonlinear Spillover Effects of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Technological Innovation[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2023, 0(4): 15-28.

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