Abstract: In the context of actively promoting green development in China, the environmental target constraints are of great significance for leading the energy conservation, consumption reduction and green transition of the manufacturing industry. Regarding the target responsibility system of environmental protection implemented in the 11^th Five-Year Plan as a quasi-natural experiment and based on the data of Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 1998 to 2009, as well as the COD emission reduction targets data of the provinces (the autonomous regions or the municipalities directly under the central government) during the 11^th Five-Year Plan period, this paper constructs a three-dimensional panel set of“year-city-two-digit manufacturing industries”. It then conducts an empirical test of the impact of the target responsibility system of environmental protection on the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry with the difference-in-difference-in-difference model. The results show that the target responsibility system of environmental protection has significantly promoted the upgrading of heavily polluting manufacturing industries, and that this effect does not exist in the short term. In the regions with lower degree of marketization and lower pollution control ability, this effect is more obvious. The mechanism analysis reveals that, on the one hand, the target responsibility system of environmental protection has promoted the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry through the resource reallocation between cities, intra-city industries and intra-industry enterprises; on the other hand, it has realized the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry through increasing the innovation numbers of the polluting enterprises and strengthening the strategic innovation behaviors of polluting enterprises. Further research reveals that with the help of the upgrading effect of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry the target responsibility system has improved the industrial energy efficiency and cleanliness, achieved energy conservation and emission reduction, and thus promoted the green transition of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry. Therefore, it is necessary to establish specific and rolling emission reduction targets to break market segmentation, guide the regions to create products based on comparative advantages, improve the evaluation accuracy and support of governments for high-quality innovations, and fully leverage the empowering role of the environmental protection target responsibility system in the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

Key words: target responsibility system of environmental protection, COD reduction targets, upgrading of heavily polluting industries, resource reallocation effect