Abstract: This paper makes an analysis of the quarterly data of the cross-border capital flows of 39 emerging countries from 1998 to 2017 with the panel smooth transition regression model. The findings show that, firstly, during the high-risk periods of the international financial markets, the capital outflow surges are mainly in the form of short-term capital outflow; while during the low-risk periods of international financial markets, the capital outflow surges of the emerging countries are mainly in the form of the increase of OFDI. Secondly, with the improvement of economic strength, the capital outflow surges of emerging countries are no longer always reflected as capital flight with the purpose of hedging, sometimes it manifests as an increase of outward investment with investment nature. Thirdly, as the impact of domestic economic growth on outward direct investments is opposite to that on outward short-term investment, the natural shift of the capital outflow surges in emerging countries has produced a non-linear impact of domestic economic growth on capital outflow surge in emerging countries. Therefore, the emerging countries should not be too panic when faced with the capital outflow surges, they should distinguish the different natures of the capital outflow surges, resolutely implement the opening-up strategy and the policies that seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, maintain the stability of cross-border capital flows and economic fundamentals, and promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of their domestic economic structure.

Key words: capital outflow surge, international financial market risk, economic growth