Contemporary Finance & Economics ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (02): 316-.

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Forecast and Monitoring on China’s Local Government Debt Risk during the 13th Five-Year Period

ZHANG Ping1, ZHOU Quan-lin2   

  1. (1. Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222; 2. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
  • Received:2016-11-17 Published:2021-01-21

Abstract: China’s economic development has entered the new normal economy during “the 13th five-year period”, during which local government activities of financial revenue and expenditure are faced with more challenges. It can be seen from a multi-angle analysis that although China’s local government debt risks are generally under control, yet it contributes too much to the national government debt, there is almost no more space for local government debt to rise. Even the debt risks in some provinces have entered the early-warning interval. Through the forecast for the local governments fund sources to pay the debt and the debt service cost during the 13th five-year period, it can be easily seen that China’s local government debts may be faced with greater debt repaying pressure, and the risks will be increased continuously. Therefore, the task of controlling the debt risks and relieving the debt pressures should be carried out from the following two aspects: one is to enhance debt management ability, quicken the improvement of local autonomous bond issuing modes, promote the credit evaluation and bankruptcy system, and improve the debt risk warning mechanism; the other is to dissolve the stock of debts, push forward the market-oriented transformation of local financing platform, and improve the public-private partnership modes.

Key words: local government debt; debt risk; risk monitoring; the 13th Five-year Period