财政政策不确定性与企业投资

当代财经 ›› 2025, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (12): 61-74.

财政政策不确定性与企业投资

张梓润¹, 蔡嘉瑶², 陈斌开¹, 袁劲³

1.中央财经大学经济学院,北京 102206;
2.海关总署研究中心,北京 100005;
3.广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州 510320

收稿日期:2025-09-28 修回日期:2025-11-16 出版日期:2025-12-15 发布日期:2025-12-10
通讯作者: 袁劲,广东财经大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事税收政策与企业进出口研究,联系方式 137307117@qq.com。
作者简介:张梓润,中央财经大学博士研究生,主要从事金融发展和产业政策研究;蔡嘉瑶,海关总署研究中心副研究员,经济学博士,主要从事产业政策、公司金融、供应链韧性与安全研究;陈斌开,中央财经大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济政策研究。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字化转型赋能贸易强国建设的机制、路径与对策研究”（23AJL011）; 教育部人文社会科学规划项目“工业机器人兴起、劳动替代与工人健康研究：理论与实证分析”（22YJA790037）; 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目“人工智能技术影响数字贸易发展的机制、路径与政策研究”（2024A1515012640）

Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Investment

Zhang Zi-run¹, Cai Jia-yao², Chen Bin-kai¹, Yuan Jin³

1. Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206;
2. Research Center of the General Administration of Customs, Beijing 100005;
3. Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China

Received:2025-09-28 Revised:2025-11-16 Online:2025-12-15 Published:2025-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 稳预期和稳投资是推动经济高质量发展的工作重点,而地方财政政策不确定性作为企业面临的重要外部风险源,对企业投资行为具有重要的影响。基于中国沪深A股上市公司的数据,实证分析了地方财政政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响及作用机制。研究表明：地方财政政策不确定性上升会显著降低该地区企业的投资规模,且当地方财政政策不确定性增加1%时,该地区企业投资规模会下降0.037%。机制分析发现,当地方财政政策不确定性增强时,企业会因风险规避动机强化而减少投资;地方财政政策不确定性会引发银行等金融中介的“惜贷”行为,降低企业融资可得性,进而减少投资资金供给。异质性分析发现,非国有企业的投资行为对地方财政政策不确定性更加敏感,且在财政压力大的地区,财政政策不确定性对企业投资规模的缩减效应更为明显。因此,应进一步强化财政政策逆周期调节与预期管理,夯实企业稳定投资的基础;优化央地财政分权关系与提高政策透明度,缓解区域政策不确定性失衡;聚焦中小民营企业政策适配性,构建针对性政策支持体系。

关键词: 财政政策不确定性, 财政压力, 企业投资, 企业风险规避, 企业融资可得性

Abstract: Stabilizing expectations and stabilizing investment are key priorities for advancing high-quality economic development. Local fiscal policy uncertainty, as a major external risk source faced by enterprises, has a significant impact on enterprises’ investment behavior. Based on the data from Chinese A-share listed companies, this study empirically analyzes the impact and mechanism of local fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior. The findings show that an increase in local fiscal policy uncertainty will significantly reduce the investment scale of enterprises in the region, and when the uncertainty of local fiscal policy increases by 1%, the investment scale of enterprises in the region will decrease by 0.037%. The mechanism analysis reveals that when the uncertainty of local fiscal policies increases, enterprises will reduce investment due to the strengthening of risk aversion motivation. The uncertainty of local fiscal policies can lead to financial intermediaries such as banks being reluctant to lend, reducing the availability of corporate financing and ultimately decreasing the supply of investment funds. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the investment behavior of non-state-owned enterprises is more sensitive to local fiscal policy uncertainty, and that in areas with high fiscal pressure, the reduction effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on enterprise investment scale is more pronounced. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen the countercyclical adjustment and expectation management of fiscal policies, and consolidate the foundation for stable investment by enterprises; to optimize the fiscal decentralization relationship and policy transparency between the central and local governments, and alleviate the imbalance of regional policy uncertainty; to focus on the policy adaptability of small and medium-sized private enterprises and build a targeted policy support system.

Key words: fiscal policy uncertainty, financial pressure, enterprise investment, enterprise risk aversion, enterprise financing availability

中图分类号:

F812.0

张梓润, 蔡嘉瑶, 陈斌开, 袁劲. 财政政策不确定性与企业投资[J]. 当代财经, 2025, 0(12): 61-74.

Zhang Zi-run, Cai Jia-yao, Chen Bin-kai, Yuan Jin. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Investment[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2025, 0(12): 61-74.

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