内外部不确定性如何影响跨境银行资本流动

当代财经 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (2): 71-84.

内外部不确定性如何影响跨境银行资本流动

金雯雯

温州大学商学院,浙江温州 325005

收稿日期:2023-08-16 修回日期:2023-12-11 发布日期:2024-01-23
作者简介:金雯雯,温州大学讲师,博士,主要从事金融风险管理与金融包容研究,联系方式1594181124@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金一般项目“机会平等视角下普惠金融发展的目标偏离与矫正机制研究”（21BJY046）

How Do Internal and External Uncertainties Affect Cross-Border Bank Capital Flows?

JIN Wen-wen

Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325005, China

Received:2023-08-16 Revised:2023-12-11 Published:2024-01-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 明晰内外部不确定性对跨境银行资本流动的影响效应及其机制对于新时期防控金融风险具有重要意义。基于18个层面的224个变量构建中国经济与金融不确定性指数,并以中国作为接受国,考察内外部不确定性对跨境银行资本流动的影响及其机制。研究表明：第一,美国经济与金融不确定性作为全球性冲击会抑制跨境银行资本流入中国,且这种影响在美联储货币政策紧缩期更甚;第二,中国经济与金融不确定性会通过加剧市场恐慌情绪助推跨境银行资本撤出,表现为避险机制,并通过影响债权类资产相对收益率抑制跨境银行资本流入,表现为逐利机制;第三,在内部经济不确定性冲击下,报告国金融发展水平越高,跨境银行资本撤出越少;第四,在中国经济不确定性较高区制下,外部不确定性对跨境银行资本流入具有较大的冲击力和较强的持续性。因此,应甄别不确定性的来源地与类型,以完善跨境资本动态监测体系;根据不确定性的传导机制丰富跨境资本监管工具箱,提升中国经济增长的内驱力与韧性,以应对多重不确定性冲击的叠加效应。

关键词: 经济不确定性, 金融不确定性, 跨境银行资本

Abstract: Understanding the impact of internal and external uncertainties on cross-border bank capital flows and their mechanisms holds great importance in the prevention and control of financial risks in the new era. Based on 224 variables at 18 levels, this paper constructs an economic and financial uncertainty index of China. Then it investigates the impact of internal and external uncertainties on cross-border bank capital flows by taking China as a recipient country. The findings show that, firstly, the global impact of economic and financial uncertainty from the United States will suppress the cross-border bank capital inflows to China, and this impact is even more severe during the tightening period of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy; secondly, the uncertainty of China’s economy and finance will help to promote the withdrawal of cross-border bank capital by exacerbating market panic, which is manifested as a hedging mechanism, and it will suppress cross-border bank capital inflows by affecting the relative returns of debt assets, which is manifested as a profit seeking mechanism; thirdly, under the influence of internal economic uncertainty, the higher the level of financial development in the reporting country, the less capital withdrawal from cross-border banks; fourthly, under the system of higher economic uncertainty in China, the external uncertainty has a significant impact and strong sustainability on cross-border bank capital inflows. In light of these findings, it is recommended that the government should effectively identify the source and types of uncertainties to enhance the cross-border capital monitoring system, enrich the cross-border capital regulatory toolbox based on different transmission mechanisms of uncertainties, and bolster the internal driving force and resilience of economic growth in China, so as to cope with the superimposed effects of multiple uncertainty shocks.

Key words: economic uncertainty, financial uncertainty, cross-border bank capital

中图分类号:

F831

金雯雯. 内外部不确定性如何影响跨境银行资本流动[J]. 当代财经, 2024, 0(2): 71-84.

JIN Wen-wen. How Do Internal and External Uncertainties Affect Cross-Border Bank Capital Flows?[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2024, 0(2): 71-84.

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