美国经济政策不确定性对中国创新的非线性溢出效应

当代财经 ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 15-28.

美国经济政策不确定性对中国创新的非线性溢出效应

陈普¹, 欧阳志刚^2,1

1.华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌 330013;
2.中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉 430073

收稿日期:2022-10-13 修回日期:2022-12-03 出版日期:2023-04-15 发布日期:2023-04-12
通讯作者: 欧阳志刚,中南财经政法大学、华东交通大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济时间序列分析研究,联系方式oyzg2001@sina.com。
作者简介:陈普,华东交通大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中美经济政策不确定性、科技创新与高质量经济增长”（71973044）; 国家自然科学基金地区项目“人口老龄化与人工智能双重冲击下的经济增长”（72263008）; 江西省高校人文社会科学研究青年项目“美国经济不确定性对中国创新的非线性溢出效应”（JJ21213）

Nonlinear Spillover Effects of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Technological Innovation

CHEN Pu¹, OUYANG Zhi-gang^2,1

1. East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013;
2. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China

Received:2022-10-13 Revised:2022-12-03 Online:2023-04-15 Published:2023-04-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 技术领先国家经济政策不确定性可通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对技术追随国的科技创新产生溢出效应,溢出效应的方向依赖于两个国家经济政策不确定性对本国科技创新的影响机制。基于一个非线性阈值全球向量自回归（GVAR）模型对美国经济政策不确定性对中国科技创新的非线性溢出效应的研究表明,整体而言,美国经济政策不确定性通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对中国科技创新产生抑制效应,并且在低增长机制中的抑制效应相对更大。分行业来看,对于美国更具创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性主要通过技术追随渠道对中国行业创新产生负向溢出效应;其中,低增长机制中的负向效应较大。对于美国具有相对创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对中国创新产生溢出效应;其中,高增长机制中产生较小的正向效应,低增长机制产生较大的负向效应。对于中国具有创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性通过不确定性引致渠道对行业创新产生溢出效应;其中,高增长机制中的溢出效应不明显,低增长机制中产生明显的负向溢出效应。

关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 科技创新, 溢出渠道, 溢出效应

Abstract: The economic policy uncertainty of the technology leading countries can produce spillover effects on the scientific and technological innovation of the technology following countries through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel. The direction of the spillover effects depends on the influencing mechanism of the EPU of the technology leading country and the technology following country on the domestic scientific and technological innovation. On the basis of a nonlinear threshold GVAR model, this paper studies the non-linear spillovereffect of the EPU of USA on the scientific and technological innovation of China. The results show that as a whole the EPU of USA can suppress the scientific and technological innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel, and that the inhibiting effect is greaterin the low growth mechanism. In terms of different industries, the EPU of USA in its industries with more innovative advantages can have negative spillover effects on China’s industrial innovation mainly through the technology following channel; among which, the inhibiting effect is greater in the low growth mechanism. In the industries of USA with relative innovative advantages, the EPU of USA can have spillover effects on the industrial innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel; among which, the positive effects are smaller in the high growth mechanism and the negative effects are greater in the low growth mechanism. As for the industries of China with innovative advantages, the EPU of USA can produce spillover effects on the industrial innovation through the uncertainty inducing channel; among which,the spillover effect is not clear in the high growth mechanism, and the negative spillover effect is obvious in the low growth mechanism.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, scientific and technological innovation, spillover channels, spillover effects

中图分类号:

F015

陈普, 欧阳志刚. 美国经济政策不确定性对中国创新的非线性溢出效应[J]. 当代财经, 2023, 0(4): 15-28.

CHEN Pu, OUYANG Zhi-gang. Nonlinear Spillover Effects of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Technological Innovation[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2023, 0(4): 15-28.

参考文献

[1] 李恩极,张晨,万相昱. 经济政策不确定性下的创新决策:企业韧性视角[J]. 当代财经,2022,(10):102-114.
[2] Brouwer M.Entrepreneurship and Uncertainty:Innovation and Competition among the Many[J]. Small Business Economics,2000,15(2):149-160.
[3] Weeds H.Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(3):729-747.
[4] Bloom N.Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D[J]. American Economic Review,2007,97(2):250-255.
[5] 孟庆斌,师倩. 宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J]. 世界经济,2017,(9):75-98.
[6] 欧阳志刚,何富美,薛龙. 经济政策不确定性、双轮驱动与经济增长[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2019,(4):986-1000.
[7] Baker S.R.,Bloom N.,Davis S J. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[8] Colombo V.Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US:Does It Matter for the Euro Area?[J]. Economics Letters,2013,121(1):39-42.
[9] 张德园,林宇,侯县平. 美国不确定性对中国经济的时变冲击——基于QBLL-TVP-VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 管理评论,2021,(12):71-86.
[10] Christou C.,Cunado J.,Gupta R.,et al.Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns in Pacific Rim Countries:Evidence Based on a Bayesian Panel VAR Model[J]. Journal of Multinational Financial Management,2017,40(6):92-102.
[11] Cheung K.Y.,Lin P. Spillover Effects of FDI on Innovation in China:Evidence from the Provincial Data[J]. China Economic Review,2004,15(1):25-44.
[12] Qiu S.M.,Liu X. L,,Gao T. S. Do Emerging Countries Prefer Local Knowledge or Distant Knowledge? Spillover Effect of University Collaborations on Local Firms[J]. Research Policy,2017,46(7):1299-1311.
[13] 顾晓燕,史新和,刘厚俊. 知识产权出口贸易与经济增长——基于创新溢出和要素配置的研究视角[J]. 国际贸易问题,2018,(3):12-23.
[14] 吴朝阳,陈雅. 企业出口、竞争效应与自主技术创新[J]. 当代财经,2020,(8):114-127.
[15] 诸竹君,王芳. 来自美国的进口竞争与中国企业创新行为[J]. 财贸经济,2022,(9):117-132.
[16] Ho C.Y.,Wang W.,Yu J. H. International Knowledge Spillover through Trade:A Time-varying Spatial Panel Data Approach[J]. Economics Letters,2018,162(1):30-33.
[17] 席强敏,张景乐,张可云. 中国城市专利规模与知识宽度的时空演变及影响因素[J]. 经济地理,2022,(3):56-65.
[18] Pesaran M.H.,Schuermann T.,Weiner S. M. Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,2004,22(2):129-162.
[19] Dees S.,Mauro F.D.,Pesaran H.,et al. Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area:A Global VAR Analysis[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22(1):1-38.
[20] Trung N.B. The Spillover Effects of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Global Economy:A Global VAR Approach[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,2019,48(4):90-110.
[21] Chudik A.,Smith V.The GVAR Approach and the Dominance of the US Economy[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute,2013.
[22] 张玉鹏,王茜. 政策不确定性的非线性宏观经济效应及其影响机制研究[J]. 财贸经济,2016,(4):116-133.
[23] Hamilton J.D. Time Series Analysis[M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994.
[24] Smith L. V. GVAR Toolbox[CP].2014-08-01[2022-12-29]. https://sites.google.com/site/gvarmodelling/gvar-toolbox.
[25] Weise C.L. The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy:A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach[J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1999,31(1):85-108.
[26] Färe R.,Grosskopf S.Intertemporal Production Frontiers:With Dynamic DEA[M]. Dordrecht:Springer,1996.
[27] 段德忠,杜德斌,张杨. 中美产业技术创新能力比较研究——以装备制造业和信息通信产业为例[J]. 世界地理研究,2019,(4):24-34.