关键词: 贸易政策不确定性, 出口产品范围, 自由贸易协定, 制度环境

Abstract: On the basis of a trade model of a multi-product heterogeneous enterprise, this paper analyzes the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the scope of corporate export products. Then, taking the China-ASEAN FTA as a quasi-natural experiment and making use of the trade enterprise data from China Customs during the period of 2001-2013, it conducts an empirical test. The results show that the decline of the trade policy uncertainty brought by the China-ASEAN FTA has significantly expanded the scope of export products of Chinese enterprises, and that this promoting effect has heterogeneity at the levels of corporate ownership and trade pattern. The results of mechanism analysis show that the decrease of trade policy uncertainty can promote the enterprises with higher productivity entering the market and the enterprises with lower productivity exiting the market, then the scope of corporate export products can be expanded by improving the corporate average productivity. Further study finds that the regional institutional environment can promote the active effect of the decrease of trade policy uncertainty on the scope of corporate export products. It is believed that to actively promote the construction of free trade area, establish orderly trade rules and eliminate the trade policy uncertainty are conducive to the growth of extension margin of corporate export, which can be the new driving source for China to promote its steady growth of exports.

Key words: trade policy uncertainty, scope of export products, free trade agreement, institutional environment