当代财经 ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (2): 54-65.

• 现代金融 • 上一篇    下一篇

货币政策通胀目标中的资产价格考量——基于资产泡沫的视角

杨秋怡a, 郎有泽b   

  1. 复旦大学 a. 发展研究院; b. 六次产业研究院,上海 200433
  • 收稿日期:2021-05-09 修回日期:2021-11-22 出版日期:2022-02-15 发布日期:2022-02-22
  • 通讯作者: 郎有泽,复旦大学博士后流动站研究人员,博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究,联系方式langyouze@fudan.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:杨秋怡,复旦大学助理研究员,博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国宏观经济调控政策研究”(71933001); 中国博士后科学基金第68批面上资助项目“上海推进经济增长动能转换的战略性新兴产业发展研究”(2020M681354)

Reflection on Asset Prices in Inflation Target of Monetary Policy: From the Perspective of Asset Bubbles

YANG Qiu-yi, LANG You-ze   

  1. Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Received:2021-05-09 Revised:2021-11-22 Online:2022-02-15 Published:2022-02-22

摘要: 通胀目标是中央银行货币政策制定中的关键变量。近年来主要发达国家大量货币投放下的低通胀率给政策规则的有效性带来重大挑战:传统以物价指数为测度的通胀目标不但已无法适应高质量发展阶段居民开支的新变化,而且无法捕捉当前已不容忽视的资产价格和投资品价格对居民价格感知的影响。通过建立具有信贷约束的一般均衡模型,并将可抵押的资产价格泡沫引入通胀目标,可以考察货币政策对宏观经济的调控效果。研究结果表明,资产泡沫波动会抑制家庭消费,但有利于资金向生产部门聚集,促进实体经济生产;在通胀目标中考虑资产价格的货币政策能够熨平泡沫波动、稳定经济;考虑资产价格后,泡沫波动对消费的抑制作用得到降低,从而提高社会福利。因此,宏观政策调控应注重资产价格对通胀水平的真实反映,结合形势需要稳定市场预期,灵活引导经济平稳健康发展。

关键词: 资产价格, 货币政策, 通胀目标, 信贷约束, 泡沫冲击

Abstract: The inflation target is the crucial variable when the central bank formulates monetary policies. In recent years, the major developed countries maintain a low rate of inflation when injecting massive money into the economy, which challenges the effectiveness of monetary policy: The traditional inflation target measured by price index is not only incapable of accommodating the new changes of consumer expenditures at the stage of high-quality development, but also unable to capture the influence of the asset prices and the prices of investment goods on the price perception of residents, which cannot been ignored at present. By constructing a general equilibrium model with the credit constraints, this paper introduces asset price bubbles that can be pledged into the inflation target and examines the effectiveness of monetary policy regulations on the macro economy. The results show that although asset bubble fluctuations can restrain household consumption, it leads the fund to flow into the production sectors, booming the production of the real economy. The monetary policy taking asset prices into considerations in the inflation target can smooth the bubble fluctuations and stabilize economy. When the asset prices are considered, the consumption restraints caused by bubble fluctuations will be reduced, thus social welfare will be improved. Therefore, the adjustment of macroeconomic policies should lay emphasis on the true reflections of asset prices on inflation level, stabilize market expectations under specific situations, and flexibly lead the economy to develop in a stable and healthy way.

Key words: asset prices, monetary policy, inflation target, credit constraints, bubble shock

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