关键词: 流动人口, 经济发展, 人口回流, 溢出效应

Abstract: In recent years, the phenomenon of population return in China indicates that the floating population and economic development are not simply the linear relation. The empirical research using the urban panel data from 2009 to 2018 shows that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the floating population and the economic development. The developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc., have gradually entered the stage of population backflow, while most of the remaining regions are still in a stage of positive correlation between floating population and economic development. In terms of spillover effect, economic development has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, which can promote population inflows in the surrounding areas. Population floating has a significant siphonic effect, which can inhibit the population inflow in the surrounding areas to a certain extent. Therefore, the developed areas should realize the inevitable trend of population backflow and promote the“double transformation and upgrading”of the industrial structure and the demographic structure. The underdeveloped areas should conform to the general trend of population backflow, undertake industrial transfer from developed areas, reasonably guide the returned population and let them set down, and promote the further development of urbanization and rural revitalization.

Key words: floating population, economic development, population backflow, spillover effect.