双循环格局下研发溢出与中国工业产品复杂度

当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (6): 100-112.

双循环格局下研发溢出与中国工业产品复杂度

李有

江西财经大学国际经贸学院,江西南昌 330013

收稿日期:2021-03-29 修回日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-06-15
作者简介:李有,江西财经大学副教授,博士,主要从事国际贸易理论和产业经济研究,联系方式liyoujxufe@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“二元融资结构与资本管制特征下中国最优货币政策研究：基于预期驱动经济理论”（71863014）; 国家自然科学基金项目“中国售后市场反垄断研究”（71663020）

R&D Spillovers and the Complexity of China’s Industrial Products under the Dual-Circulation Pattern

LI You

Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

Received:2021-03-29 Revised:2021-05-25 Published:2021-06-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 产品复杂度的提升能够促进经济的持续增长,一国生产复杂产品的种类和数量越多,该国在国际经济的竞争中就越能立于不败之地。本文详细论述了双循环格局下研发溢出影响产品复杂度的机制,并利用中国32个工业行业2000—2017年的数据实证检验了研发溢出对中国工业行业产品复杂度的影响效果。理论机制分析表明,在以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,研发溢出可以通过竞争效应、反馈效应、市场需求引致效应、示范模仿效应和人力资本效应促进产品复杂度的提高。实证检验结果表明,产业内的研发可以显著促进产品复杂度的提高,产业间的研发虽然与产品复杂度正相关,但不显著;外国研发通过进口渠道和其他渠道显著促进了中国工业产品复杂度;外商直接投资也对中国工业产品复杂度的提高有着显著的促进作用;行业人力资本是中国工业产品复杂度提高的重要促进因素;产品复杂度具有显著的累积性特征,上一期产品复杂度对当期产品复杂度具有显著的促进作用。

关键词: 双循环格局, 产品复杂度, 研发溢出, 面板数据模型

Abstract: The increase in product complexity can promote the sustained economic growth. The more types and quantities of complex products a country can produce, the more invincible the country is in the international economic competition. This paper discusses in detail the mechanism of R&D spillovers influencing product complexity under the dual-cycle pattern and uses the data of 32 Chinese industries from 2000 to 2017 to empirically test the effects of R&D spillovers on the product complexity in China’s industries. The results of the theoretical mechanism analysis show that under the new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other, R&D spillovers can promote product complexity through competition effects, feedback effects, market demand-induced effects, demonstration and imitation effects, and human capital effects. The results of the empirical test show that intra-industry R&D can significantly promote the increase of product complexity. Although inter-industrial R&D is positively correlated with product complexity, it is not significant. Foreign R&D has significantly promoted the complexity of Chinese industrial products through import channels and other channels; foreign direct investment has also played a significant role in promoting the increase in the complexity of China’s industrial products. The industrial human capital is an important factor in the increase of the complexity of China’s industrial products. Product complexity has a significant cumulative feature, and the product complexity of the previous batch plays a significant role in promoting the complexity of the current products.

Key words: dual-circulation pattern, product complexity, R&D spillover;, panel data model

中图分类号:

F740

李有. 双循环格局下研发溢出与中国工业产品复杂度[J]. 当代财经, 2021, 0(6): 100-112.

LI You. R&D Spillovers and the Complexity of China’s Industrial Products under the Dual-Circulation Pattern[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2021, 0(6): 100-112.

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