关键词: 婚姻状态,养老保险政策,退休,断点回归,Probit模型

Abstract: On the basis of controlling the impact of endowment insurance system on retirement with the method of the regression discontinuity, this paper establishes a Probit model to examine the impact of different marital status on urban women’s retirement in China by using the data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2013. The findings show that: firstly, the probability of retirement of urban women has significantly increased by 17.8% for reaching the qualification for the pension; secondly, under the condition of the endowment insurance policy exerting influence on women’s retirement behavior, the probability of the married, divorced or widowed urban women exiting the labor market is significantly reduced compared with the unmarried women; thirdly, the retirement decisions made by the urban women are impacted by such factors as age, schooling, health, personal economic income, number of siblings, children’s income and so on. This provides a basis for adjusting the retirement policies in the future.

Key words: marital status; endowment insurance policy; retirement; regression discontinuity; Probit model