关键词: 投资者情绪,资本管制,货币替代,资本账户开放

Abstract: After the modification of the traditional currency substitution model, the empirical results show that investor sentiment and capital regulation are important factors affecting the degree of China’s currency substitution and that both a decline in the degree of capital regulation and a rise in investor risk aversion will lead to the rise of China’s currency substitution rate. Further analysis with the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition has found that besides the self fluctuation of currency substitution, investor sentiment is the leading factor resulting in China’s currency substitution rate fluctuation, while the impact of capital regulation on currency substitution is very weak and the contribution rate is very low. Therefore, the monetary authorities should pay close attention to the changes in investor sentiment, strengthen properly the short-term capital regulation, and prevent currency substitution risk caused by risk aversion from impacting China’s monetary policy adjustment and economic development. At the same time, the long-term capital account liberalization policy should always be insisted on, so as to seek more global welfare gains.

Key words: investor sentiment; capital regulation; currency substitution; capital account liberalization