关键词: P2P,久期模型,比例风险模型,竞争风险模型

Abstract: In order to improve P2P platform supervision and avoid the platform risks, this paper takes the 3176 P2P platforms revealed by Online Lending House as the research samples to study the survival law of P2P platforms by following the paradigm of the duration model. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the P2P platform risks are not unchangeable; it generally follows the basic form of rising first and then decreasing. Secondly, the Cox model shows that the mortality of P2P lending platforms are significantly affected by such factors as the registered capital, registration place, shareholders’ background, business models, and so on; the competitive risk model shows that the registered capital, the third-party supervision and other concomitant variables have significant differences in their impact on the survival state of P2P platforms. Finally, the situation transformation regression simulation shows that the five supervising measures, i.e., increasing the registered capital requirements, the mandatory third-party custody of customer funds, prohibition of day-object, the mandatory risk reserve and the mandatory third party guarantee or mortgage, can all extent the survival time of the P2P platforms, but there are significant differences in their supervising effects. Therefore, it is recommended to raise the industry threshold and suppress the running-away risks, meanwhile, to strengthen the business guidance so as to promote the healthy development.

Key words: P2P; duration model; proportional hazard model; competitive risk Model