关键词: 政治金融周期,国际金融周期,货币政策效应

Abstract: To grasp the financial periodic law is very important in the steady financial development, and government succession is a factor affecting the operation of the financial markets, which is not to be neglected. Based on the observations of international empirical facts, this article adopts the panel data regression analysis and the cross-spectrum analysis to conduct an empirical study. The findings indicate that there exists a significant“political-financial cycle”in the market economy countries of different types, and that political cycle is an important factor affecting the financial cycles of the country. The financial cycles of one country is also significantly affected by the monetary policies of the core countries, but the effect is smaller than the political cycle of the country. There exists a certain numerical relationship among the financial cycles of every country, but the levels of intimacy are different, no universally-changed periodicity law is found. Therefore, in order to smooth the cross-border capital flow and maintain the stable development of the country’s economy, it is necessary to measure and grasp the periodic law of international finance, to implement active monetary policies, and to carry out moderate structural capital control under the premise of keeping the independence of monetary policies.

Key words: political-financial cycles; international financial cycles; monetary policy effect