网络外部性、同伴效应与从众行为——基于不完美信息贝叶斯模型的实证研究

当代财经 ›› 2020, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11): 15-25.

网络外部性、同伴效应与从众行为——基于不完美信息贝叶斯模型的实证研究

习明明

江西财经大学江西经济发展研究院,江西南昌 330013

收稿日期:2020-03-05 修回日期:2020-08-18 出版日期:2020-11-15 发布日期:2020-12-10
作者简介:习明明,江西财经大学副研究员,经济学博士,主要从事行为经济学研究,联系方式mmxi@foxmail.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“基于同伴效应的网络经济中的从众行为及其特征研究”(71863011);江西省教育厅科技项目“基于贝叶斯模型的网络从众行为及其特征研究”(201912);江西省高校人文社会科学青年基金项目“推动中部崛起与江西经济高质量发展研究”(JJ19204)

Network Externality, Peer Effect and Herd Behavior:An Empirical Study Based on the Imperfect Information Bayesian Model

XI Ming-ming

Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

Received:2020-03-05 Revised:2020-08-18 Online:2020-11-15 Published:2020-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 数字经济是我国未来发展的重要方向,同伴效应在数字经济发展中起到了非常重要的驱动作用。利用2019年“双十一”网络消费调查数据,基于不完美信息贝叶斯决策模型的理论与实证研究表明,同伴效应会对消费者从众行为产生显著的影响,并且这种影响会随着同伴数量的增加而以递减速度增加。进一步数据分析显示,由于网络信息外部性和支付外部性,参与“双十一”活动的同伴数量每增加一位,平均而言会使得消费者参加“双十一”活动的概率提高约8%以上。在使用工具变量法和倾向指数匹配分析处理之后,该结果仍然显著成立。这说明,数字经济的发展存在一定程度的非理性繁荣,要维持数字经济健康持续稳定发展,还需要从政府政策、企业管理和个人决策等方面分别做出优化提升。

关键词: 同伴效应, 从众行为, 贝叶斯模型, 网络外部性

Abstract: Digital economy is an important direction for China's future development, and the peer effect plays a very important driving role in the development of digital economy. Based on the data of the“Singles'Day”Online consumption survey in 2019, the theoretical and empirical studies based on the imperfect information Bayesian decision model show that the peer effect can have a significant impact on the herd behavior of consumers, and this impact will increase at a decreasing rate with the increase of the number of peers. Further data analysis shows that due to the network information externality and payment externality, each additional partner participating in the“Singles' Day”activity will, on average, increase the probability of consumers participating in the“Singles' Day”activity by more than 8%. After the treatment by using the instrumental variable method and the propensity index matching analysis, the result remains significantly valid. This shows that there is a certain degree of irrational exuberance in the development of the digital economy. To maintain the healthy, sustainable and stable development of the digital economy, it is necessary to optimize and improve government policies, business management and individual decision-making.

Key words: peer effect, herd behavior, Bayesian model, network externality

中图分类号:

F713.55

习明明. 网络外部性、同伴效应与从众行为——基于不完美信息贝叶斯模型的实证研究[J]. 当代财经, 2020, 0(11): 15-25.

XI Ming-ming. Network Externality, Peer Effect and Herd Behavior:An Empirical Study Based on the Imperfect Information Bayesian Model[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2020, 0(11): 15-25.

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