关键词: 数字经济, 出口广度边际, 出口密度边际, 出口扩张, 贸易成本

Abstract: As a new engine driving China's economic growth, the digital economy plays a crucial role in stabilizing trade. This paper utilizes product-level trade data from China’s Customs Database and the CEPII-BACI Database from 2015 to 2021 to measure the extensive and intensive margins of provincial exports and empirically examines the impact and underlying mechanisms of the digital economy on these margins. The findings indicate that the digital economy significantly promotes the extensive margin of provincial exports, while its impact on the intensive margin is not statistically significant. This effect varies across industries, regions, and importing countries. Specifically, the digital economy exerts a stronger promoting effect on the extensive margin in data-intensive and technology-intensive industries. However, in sectors characterized by high information transparency and intense competition, the digital economy may suppress the intensive margin of exports. Moreover, the higher the digital economy development levels of both trading partners, the more pronounced the expansion of the extensive margin. The signing of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) can further enhance the digital economy’s effect on expanding the extensive margin. Further analysis reveals that trade costs, intermediate goods imports, and international innovation cooperation are key channels through which the digital economy influences the extensive margin expansion of exports. Based on these findings, the government should strengthen digital infrastructure and international cooperation, promote enterprise innovation and the digital transformation of traditional industries. At the same time, it is essential to actively participate in the formulation of international digital trade rules and deepen economic and trade cooperation with developed countries to comprehensively enhance the supportive role of the digital economy in export development.

Key words: digital economy, export extensive margin, export intensive margin, export expansion, trade cost