全球经济增长的长期结构趋势研究——基于1970—2023年购买力平价分解的实证分析

当代财经 ›› 2026, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 3-17.

• 当代国势学 • 下一篇

全球经济增长的长期结构趋势研究——基于1970—2023年购买力平价分解的实证分析

王亚菲¹, 武思扬¹, 徐丽笑²

1.北京师范大学统计学院,北京 100875;
2.浙江财经大学数据科学学院,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2025-11-26 修回日期:2026-02-13 发布日期:2026-04-24
作者简介:王亚菲,北京师范大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事国民核算、国际比较研究;武思扬（通信作者）,北京师范大学博士研究生,主要从事国民核算、国际比较研究,联系方式sywu293@mail.bnu.edu.cn;徐丽笑,浙江财经大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事国民核算研究。
基金资助:
江西财经大学国势研究院开放课题“国际比较项目理论与前沿发展研究”; 国家社会科学基金项目“面向中国式现代化的统计测度基础研究”（22VRC165）

A Study of the Long-Term Structural Trends in Global Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Purchasing Power Parity Decomposition from 1970 to 2023

Wang Ya-fei¹, Wu Si-yang¹, Xu Li-xiao²

1. Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875;
2. Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2025-11-26 Revised:2026-02-13 Published:2026-04-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 世界经济格局50多年来经历了深刻的结构性变迁,全球化与数字化重塑了跨国价格体系,使传统的名义国内生产总值（GDP）和不变价GDP难以准确衡量各国（地区）的真实产出能力。为解决这一问题,基于全球183个经济体的购买力平价（PPP）面板数据,构建名义GDP向实际GDP转换的双重平减分析框架,将全球实际GDP增长拆解为真实增长效应、通胀效应和PPP效应,并在统一价格体系下刻画全球、区域及国家（地区）的经济真实增长结构。研究发现,全球经济长期增长主要由真实产出扩张驱动,但呈现明显的阶段性下降趋势;经济体内部的通胀效应与全球通胀效应周期一致;PPP效应反映的跨国（地区）价格收敛与发散呈现明显的区域差异。在区域层面,全球经济形成了由亚太地区及南亚地区构成的高增长极、北美地区和欧洲与中亚地区构成的稳定极,以及拉美地区、中东与北非地区和撒哈拉地区构成的高波动极三分格局。在经济体层面,中国与印度代表了两种不同的追赶模式,美国则呈现发达经济体的价格锚定特征;经PPP调整后的真实经济规模显示,中国的经济增长模式正从数量扩张向质量积累转变。基于此,建立基于PPP的国际可比测度体系,是中国全面提升国家治理能力和构建统计学自主知识体系的重要方向。“十五五”时期需加快构建面向现代化目标的“PPP-增长-国势”测度体系。

关键词: 全球经济增长, 真实经济规模, 购买力平价, 国势测度, 自主知识体系

Abstract: The global economic landscape has undergone profound structural changes over the past 50 years, with globalization and digitization reshaping the transnational price system, making it difficult to accurately measure the real output capacity of countries (region) using traditional nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and constant price GDP. To address this issue, based on purchasing power parity (PPP) panel data from 183 economies worldwide, this paper constructs a double deflation analysis framework for converting nominal GDP to real GDP. The global real GDP growth is decomposed into real growth effects, inflation effects, and PPP effects, and the global, regional, and country (region) economic real growth structures are characterized under a unified price system. Research has found that the long-term growth of the global economy is mainly driven by the expansion of real output, but shows a clear phased downward trend. The inflation effect within economics is consistent with the global inflation effect cycle. The PPP effect reflects significant regional differences in cross-country (region) price convergence and divergence. At the regional level, the global economy has formed a high growth pole composed of the Asia Pacific and South Asia regions, a stable pole composed of North America and Europe and Central Asia regions, and a high volatility pole tripartite pattern composed of Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Sahara region. At the economic level, China and India represent two different catch-up models, while the United States exhibits the price anchoring characteristics of developed economies. The real economic scale adjusted by PPP shows that China’s economic growth model is shifting from quantity expansion to quality accumulation. Based on this, establishing an internationally comparable measurement system based on PPP is an important direction for China to comprehensively enhance its national governance capacity and build an independent statistical knowledge system. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a“PPP - Growth - Statustics”measurement system oriented towards modernization goals.

Key words: global economic growth, real economic size, purchasing power parity, statustics measurement, autonomous knowledge system

中图分类号:

F061.2

王亚菲, 武思扬, 徐丽笑. 全球经济增长的长期结构趋势研究——基于1970—2023年购买力平价分解的实证分析[J]. 当代财经, 2026, 0(4): 3-17.

Wang Ya-fei, Wu Si-yang, Xu Li-xiao. A Study of the Long-Term Structural Trends in Global Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Purchasing Power Parity Decomposition from 1970 to 2023[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2026, 0(4): 3-17.

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全球经济增长的长期结构趋势研究——基于1970—2023年购买力平价分解的实证分析

A Study of the Long-Term Structural Trends in Global Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Purchasing Power Parity Decomposition from 1970 to 2023

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