关键词: 新能源汽车, 购买意愿, 政策效果, 地方政府补贴

Abstract: New energy vehicles have received broad social acceptance owing to their significant low-carbon and environmental benefits. Policies including purchase tax reductions and exemptions, license plate priority, and fiscal subsidies have offered crucial economic and institutional support for the sustained diffusion of new energy vehicles. At present, national-level subsidies have been phased out, and local governments have gradually introduced new subsidy policies to sustain market support. Taking Beijing as a case, this study employs a binary Probit model to examine the effects of local government subsidies, purchase tax reductions and exemptions, and license plate priority policies on consumers’ purchase intention after the withdrawal of national subsidies. The findings show that each policy individually exerts a significant positive effect on purchase intention, whereas their joint implementation enhances the overall policy impact, the effect of local subsidies becomes insignificant. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that women and low-income groups exhibit stronger positive responses to license plate priority, whereas among married and high-income groups, both purchase tax reductions and exemptions and license plate priority have significant positive impacts. Further evidence suggests that in cities where license plate priority and purchase tax reductions and exemptions are jointly implemented, the marginal effect of local subsidies is extremely limited, while removing license plate priority and retaining only purchase tax reductions and exemptions and local subsidies allows local subsidies to remain effective in promoting purchase intention. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the three policies be coordinated in line with local conditions, with an orderly withdrawal of local subsidies in cities with overlapping policies and short-term retention in cities that only implement purchase tax reductions and exemptions.

Key words: new energy vehicles, purchase intention, policy effectiveness, local government subsidies