经济增长目标管理对地方预算编制科学性的影响——基于省级预算偏离度的实证分析

当代财经 ›› 2025, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (8): 29-43.

经济增长目标管理对地方预算编制科学性的影响——基于省级预算偏离度的实证分析

冯辉

河南财经政法大学财政税务学院,河南郑州 450046

收稿日期:2024-12-05 修回日期:2025-06-28 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-09-03
作者简介:冯辉,河南财经政法大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事地方预算管理研究,联系方式fenghui1949@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目“企业绿色税收遵从的同群演化路径与协同治理机制研究”（23CJY014）; 河南省科学技术厅软科学基金项目“目标管理视角下宏观指导影响地方预算编制科学性的机制与政策强化研究”（252400412053）; 河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队建设计划资助项目“数智化财税治理与共同富裕”（2025-CXTD-09）

The Impact of Economic Growth Target Management on the Scientific Nature of Local Budget Preparation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Budget Deviation

Feng Hui

Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Received:2024-12-05 Revised:2025-06-28 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-09-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预算编制科学性是健全现代预算制度的基本原则与要求,充分发挥经济增长目标管理对预算编制的宏观指导作用,对于健全现代预算制度具有重要意义。利用2003—2022年中国省级面板数据,实证研究经济增长目标管理对地方预算编制科学性的影响及作用机制。研究表明：经济增长目标的制定及其不同特征对收入预算偏离的影响具有显著差异,增长目标加码和增长目标硬约束对收入预算偏离具有扩张效应,增长目标软约束具有抑制效应。机制分析发现,增长目标加码和增长目标硬约束会促使地方政府扩大土地出让规模、加强税收征管,因而会扩大收入预算偏离度;增长目标软约束会促使地方政府实施稳健型土地出让政策、灵活调整税收努力程度,因而会缩小收入预算偏离度。进一步分析发现,增长目标完成度对支出预算偏离具有扩张效应,增长目标加码和增长目标软约束具有抑制效应。因此,应继续发挥经济增长目标稳定锚的作用,科学合理地制定经济增长目标;提高土地资源配置效率,严格规范收入征管执法行为;推进项目支出零基预算改革,统一预算公开标准。

关键词: 现代预算制度, 地方预算编制, 收入预算偏离度, 经济增长目标管理

Abstract: The scientific nature of budget preparation is a basic principle and requirement for establishing a modern budget system. Fully leveraging the macro-guiding role of economic growth target management on budget preparation is of great significance for improving the modern budget system. Using the provincial panel data from China for the period 2003-2022, this paper empirically investigates the impact and mechanism of the economic growth target management on the scientific nature of local budget preparation. The results show that the formulation of economic growth targets and their different characteristics have significant differences in their impact on the deviation of the revenue budget. Both the intensification of growth targets and the hard constraints of growth targets have an expansionary effect on the deviation of the revenue budget, while the soft constraints of growth targets have an inhibitory effect. The mechanism analysis reveals that the intensification and hard constraints of growth targets will prompt local governments to expand the scale of land transfers and strengthen tax collection, which may increase the deviation of the revenue budget. In contrast, the soft constraints of growth targets will encourage local governments to adopt a prudent land transfer policy and flexibly adjust tax efforts, which may reduce the deviation of the revenue budget. Further analysis shows that the completion degree of growth targets has an expansionary effect on the deviation of expenditure budgets, while the intensification and soft constraints of growth targets have an inhibitory effect. Therefore, it is recommended to continue to play the stabilizing role of the economic growth targets, and scientifically and rationally set economic growth targets; improve the efficiency of land resource allocation and standardize the enforcement of corporate income; advance the reform of zero-based budgeting for project expenditures, and unify the standards for budget disclosure.

Key words: the modern budget system, local budget preparation, deviation from the revenue budget, economic growth target management

中图分类号:

F812.27

冯辉. 经济增长目标管理对地方预算编制科学性的影响——基于省级预算偏离度的实证分析[J]. 当代财经, 2025, 0(8): 29-43.

Feng Hui. The Impact of Economic Growth Target Management on the Scientific Nature of Local Budget Preparation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Budget Deviation[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2025, 0(8): 29-43.

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