产业增长和产业关联对中国经济增长的影响

当代财经 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (9): 13-27.

产业增长和产业关联对中国经济增长的影响

吴茂华¹, 王弟海²

1.南京财经大学财政与税务学院,江苏南京 210023;
2.复旦大学经济学院/六次产业研究院,上海 200433

收稿日期:2023-11-08 修回日期:2024-01-16 出版日期:2024-09-15 发布日期:2024-09-19
通讯作者: 王弟海,复旦大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究,联系方式wangdihai@fudan.edu.cn。
作者简介:吴茂华,南京财经大学讲师,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济结构如何影响经济增长：理论机制和经验事实”（72073031）

The Impact of Industry Growth and Interindustry Linkages on China's Economic Growth

WU Mao-hua¹, WANG Di-hai²

1. Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023;
2. Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Received:2023-11-08 Revised:2024-01-16 Online:2024-09-15 Published:2024-09-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 关于产业结构变化对实际产出增长率的影响,以往的研究往往忽略了产业关联的作用。产业增长不仅直接影响经济增长,还可能通过影响其他产业间接作用于经济增长。实证研究表明,工业实际产值增长会促进服务业产值增长,但是会降低农业产值增长;服务业实际产值增长会抑制工业产值增长,并且会降低服务业相对价格增长率;农业实际产值增长会降低服务业相对价格增长。在考虑产业关联的情况下,对经济增长率的分解结果显示,1979—2022年中国工业产值增长拉动中国经济增长的净效应为5.72%,其中通过影响其他产业产值增长和价格结构变化的间接效应为1.2%;服务业产值增长拉动经济增长的净效应为2.49%,其中间接效应为-1.18%。进一步研究表明,工业增长净效应能够解释中国省级地区间实际产出增长率差异的78%。1979—2022年中国经济增长主要由工业增长拉动（贡献率为64.1%）,这一结果要高于未考虑产业关联时的直接效应（贡献率50.68%）;此外,服务业增长的间接效应对经济增长产生了较大的阻碍作用。

关键词: 经济增长, 三次产业, 产业关联, 增长率分解

Abstract: Regarding the impact of changes in industrial structure on the growth rate of real GDP, previous studies have often overlooked the role of inter-industry linkages. Industrial growth not only directly affects economic growth, but may also indirectly affect economic growth by influencing other industries. Empirical studies have shown that the growth of industrial real output value can promote the growth of service industry output value, but reduce the growth of agricultural output value; the growth of actual output value in the service industry will suppress the growth of industrial output value and reduce the relative price growth rate of the service industry; the growth of actual agricultural output value will reduce the relative price growth of the service industry. Taking into account the correlation between industries, the decomposition results of the economic growth rate show that the net effect of China's industrial output value growth driving China's economic growth from 1979 to 2022 is 5.72%, of which the indirect effect of affecting the growth of other industries' output value and changes in price structure is 1.2%. The net effect of the growth of service industry output value driving economic growth is 2.49%, of which the indirect effect is -1.18%. Further research shows that the net effect of industrial growth can explain 78% of the differences in actual output growth rates between provincial regions in China. From 1979 to 2022, China's economic growth was mainly driven by industrial growth (contributing 64.1%), which is higher than the direct effect without considering industrial linkages (contributing 50.68%). In addition, the indirect effects of service industry growth have had a significant hindering effect on economic growth.

Key words: economic growth, primary, secondary and tertiary industries, industry correlation, decomposition of growth rate

中图分类号:

F061.2

吴茂华, 王弟海. 产业增长和产业关联对中国经济增长的影响[J]. 当代财经, 2024, 0(9): 13-27.

WU Mao-hua, WANG Di-hai. The Impact of Industry Growth and Interindustry Linkages on China's Economic Growth[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2024, 0(9): 13-27.

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