当代财经 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (3): 17-29.

• 理论经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

消费升级孕育人力资本红利

万建香, 王姗姗, 聂昌腾   

  1. 江西财经大学 信息管理学院,江西 南昌 330032
  • 收稿日期:2022-12-16 修回日期:2023-10-18 出版日期:2024-03-15 发布日期:2024-03-04
  • 通讯作者: 王姗姗,江西财经大学博士研究生,主要从事消费与经济增长研究,联系方式1346678109@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:万建香,江西财经大学教授,博士生导师,管理学博士,主要从事经济计量分析、社会资本与包容性增长研究;聂昌腾,江西财经大学博士研究生,主要从事数字经济和社会公平研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“社会资本促进包容性增长的影响机理研究——基于Hamilton优化模型和空间计量分析”(71774073); 江西省自然科学基金面上项目“资源环境约束下社会资本促进经济增长的贡献度研究”(20171BAA208019); 江西省社会科学基金重点项目“数字经济赋能‘防返贫’的路径与对策研究:基于韧性理论视角”(20YJ02)

Consumption Upgrading Breeds Human Capital Dividend

WAN Jian-xiang, WANG Shan-shan, NIE Chang-teng   

  1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032, China
  • Received:2022-12-16 Revised:2023-10-18 Online:2024-03-15 Published:2024-03-04

摘要: 基于中国2013—2020年城市级别数据,考察消费升级能否以及如何影响经济发展。研究结果表明:第一,消费升级对经济发展有显著的直接促进作用,并基于消费的积累性,可从人力资本质量和人力资本结构两方面为经济发展孕育人力资本红利;第二,在异质性方面,由消费升级孕育的人力资本红利在人口流入地相对更大,在人口流出地相对更小;第三,门槛回归结果显示,以劳动力的教育水平作为门槛变量,人口流入地和人口流出地的门槛年限不同,分别为12.31年(职高)和8.67年(初中),当受教育年限大于门槛年限时,消费升级更能促进经济发展。因此,顺应消费升级趋势,应加速培育中高端消费增长点,发挥消费的积累性以实现人力资本积累;同时,加强人才培养,合理引导人口流动,带动经济发展。

关键词: 高端消费, 消费结构, 人力资本红利, 经济发展

Abstract: Based on China’s urban level data from 2013 to 2020, this paper conducts an empirical research to explore whether consumption upgrading can affect economic developmentand how. The findings show that firstly, consumption upgrading has a significant and direct promoting effect on economic development, and based on the accumulation of consumption, it can breed human capital dividends for economic development from both the quality and structure of human capital; secondly, in terms of heterogeneity, the human capital dividend nurtured by consumption upgrading is relatively larger in the areas of population inflow and smaller in the areas of population outflow; thirdly, the threshold regression results show that, taking the education level of the labor force as the threshold variable, the threshold years for population inflow and outflow are different, with 12.31 years (vocational high school) and 8.67 years (junior high school), respectively. When the education years are greater than the threshold year, consumption upgradingis more able to promote economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to comply with the trend of consumption upgrading, cultivate growth points for medium to high-end consumption, leverage the accumulation of consumption to achieve human capital accumulation, strengthen talent cultivation, reasonably guide population mobility, and drive economic development.

Key words: high-end consumption, consumption structure, human capital dividend, economic development

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