关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 杠杆操纵, 风险隐藏, 风险释放

Abstract: Studying the specific manifestations, internal logic, and economic consequences of corporate leverage manipulation decisions in the context of China’s uncertain macroeconomic policies not only helps deepen our understanding of corporate leverage manipulation decisions in China’s special institutional environment, but also provides theoretical and experiential references for how to actively respond to economic policy uncertainty risks and resolve corporate leverage manipulation issues. This paper conducts an empirical study using the data of A-share listed companies in China between 2008 and 2022, the results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on corporate leverage manipulation. When economic policies change frequently, companies will reduce the degree of leverage manipulation and release debt risks in response to fluctuating external environments. The more complete the internal control, the better the external information environment, or the higher the level of regional marketization, the more significant the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on leverage manipulation. The information asymmetry and future cash flow shortage risks caused by buffering economic policy fluctuations constitute the main motivation for enterprises to reduce their leverage manipulation during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Reducing leverage manipulation in an uncertain external environment not only helps companies obtain more external financing, but also reduces the probability of bankruptcy in the future. The above conclusion indicates that strict control of leverage manipulation behavior is not only an important strategy for enterprises to actively respond to economic policy uncertainty, but also a key measure for enterprises to obtain stakeholder support and achieve sustainable and stable development under uncertain backgrounds.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, leverage manipulation, risk concealment, risk release