当代财经 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (12): 111-125.

• 产业与贸易 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国制造业供应链自主可控水平的测度:中间品视角

王霞, 傅元海, 林涌   

  1. 广州大学 经济与统计学院,广东 广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-06 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2024-12-26
  • 通讯作者: 傅元海,广州大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事技术创新、产业经济与发展动力研究,联系方式fuyuanhai1126@163.com。
  • 作者简介:王霞,广州大学博士研究生,主要从事产业经济与发展动力研究;林涌,广州大学博士研究生,主要从事经济内生发展动力研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国现代制造业体系实现自主可控的机制、路径与对策研究”(22AJY023); 广州大学研究生创新能力培养项目“中国制造业自主可控水平测度、影响因素与提升路径研究”(2023YJS001)

Measurement of the Level of Autonomy and Control in China’s Manufacturing Supply Chain: From the Intermediate Goods Perspective

WANG Xia, FU Yuan-hai, LIN Yong   

  1. Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2024-09-06 Online:2024-12-15 Published:2024-12-26

摘要: 提升制造业供应链自主可控水平是我国构建现代化产业体系的必然要求。从中间品视角出发,在明确自主可控内涵的基础上,利用贸易网络分析法从自主和安全可控两个维度对我国制造业供应链的自主可控水平进行测度。研究发现,从整体层面看,供应链自主水平由低到高的行业依次为劳动密集型行业、技术密集型行业、资本密集型行业;在安全可控水平方面,资本密集型行业高于劳动密集型行业,技术密集型行业最低。四位码细分行业异质性表明,高技术密集型行业的自主和安全可控水平呈现“双低”的特征和下降的态势,其中新一代信息技术和航空航天装备行业尤为明显,而其他大部分行业自主和安全可控水平存在趋异性、演化特征具有趋同性。从产品层面看,尽管大部分中间品的自主和安全可控水平有所提升,但高风险产品自主水平的上升伴随安全可控水平的下降;重点行业高风险产品种类数呈现下降的态势。为此,加强供应链预警响应机制建设,以科技创新突破关键核心技术“卡脖子”瓶颈,构建多元化的贸易网络,是提升供应链自主可控水平的重要途径。

关键词: 制造业, 供应链, 贸易网络分析, 自主性, 安全可控性

Abstract: Enhancing the level of autonomy and control of the manufacturing supply chain is an inevitable requirement for the construction of a modernized industrial system in China. From the perspective of intermediate goods, this paper adopts the trade network analysis method to measure the level of autonomy and control of the manufacturing supply chain in China from the two dimensions of autonomy and security controllability on the basis of clarifying the connotation of autonomy and controllability. Researches have found that, from a holistic perspective, industries with low to high levels of supply chain autonomy are labor-intensive, technology intensive, and capital intensive industries. In terms of safety and controllability, capital intensive industries are higher than labor-intensive industries, while technology intensive industries have the lowest level. The heterogeneity of the four-digit code industry segments shows that the level of autonomy and security control in China’s high-technology-intensive industries shows a“double-low”characteristic and a declining trend, among them, the new generation of information technology and aerospace equipment industry is particularly evident, while the level of autonomy and security control in most other industries has a divergence, and the evolutionary characteristics have a convergence. From a product perspective, although the autonomy and safety controllability of most intermediate products have been improved, the increase in the autonomy of high-risk products is accompanied by a decrease in safety controllability; the number of high-risk product categories in key industries is showing a downward trend. To this end, strengthening the construction of supply chain warning and response mechanisms, breaking through the bottleneck of key core technologies through technological innovation, and building a diversified trade network are important ways to enhance the independent and controllable level of the supply chain.

Key words: manufacturing industry, supply chain, trade network analysis, autonomy, security controllability

中图分类号: