如何平滑刻画企业生命周期——基于增长率分类法的测度方法优化

当代财经 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11): 98-110.

如何平滑刻画企业生命周期——基于增长率分类法的测度方法优化

邹文理¹, 谢小平¹, 叶俊凯²

1.广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州 510006;
2.中国工商银行广东省分行,广东广州 510120

收稿日期:2024-03-13 修回日期:2024-05-20 出版日期:2024-11-15 发布日期:2024-11-21
通讯作者: 谢小平,广州大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事企业创新行为研究,联系方式xiexp@gzhu.edu.cn。
作者简介:邹文理,广州大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济政策与企业微观行为研究;叶俊凯,中国工商银行广东省分行职员,主要从事宏观经济政策与企业微观行为研究。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目“生命周期视角下经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的机制、效应与对策研究”（21BJL105）

How to Depict the Firm Life Cycle Smoothly: Optimization of Measurement Methods Based on Growth Rate Classification Method

ZOU Wen-li¹, XIE Xiao-ping¹, YE Jun-kai²

1. Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006;
2. Guangdong Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Guangzhou 510120, China

Received:2024-03-13 Revised:2024-05-20 Online:2024-11-15 Published:2024-11-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 准确测度企业的生命周期对于制定有效的经营管理决策至关重要。然而,基于现有方法得到的企业生命周期存在较大的波动,导致在短时间内出现频繁跳跃或逆转的现象,难以平滑地刻画企业周期性发展变化的过程。通过综合分析企业的纵向和横向变化特征,合理设定企业成熟期的宽泛区间,对增长率分类法进行优化,提出了一种更符合经济学逻辑的企业生命周期测度方法。利用1991—2021年A股上市企业的数据,应用上述方法对企业生命周期进行测度。结果表明,改进后的方法能更合理地反映企业变化的渐变性和稳定性,有效减少了企业生命周期测度中的跳跃和逆转现象,更完整地刻画了企业生命周期的变化,也更符合企业发展的变化逻辑。上述研究结果不仅为理论研究者提供了一种新的企业生命周期测度方法,为实证研究提供了新的参考,同时有助于企业管理者更清晰地识别企业所处的生命周期阶段,为其制定经营决策提供有力的支持。

关键词: 企业生命周期, 增长率分类法, 测度方法优化

Abstract: Accurately measuring corporate life cycle is of great significance for enterprises to make management decisions. However, corporate life cycle obtained on the basis of the existing methods exhibits significant fluctuations, leading to frequent jumps or reversals in a short period of time, making it difficult to smoothly depict the process of cyclical development and changes in the enterprises. By comprehensively analyzing the vertical and horizontal changes of enterprises, this paper sets a broad range of maturity periods rationally for enterprises, optimizes the growth rate classification method, and proposes a more economically logical method for measuring corporate life cycle. Using the data from A-share listed companies from 1991 to 2021, it applies the above methods to measure the life cycle of enterprises. The results show that the improved method can more reasonably reflect the gradual and stable changes of enterprises, effectively reduce the jumping and reversal phenomena in the measurement of corporate life cycle, more comprehensively depict the changes of corporate life cycle, and more in line with the logic of enterprise development. The above research results not only provide theoretical researchers with a new method for measuring the life cycle of enterprises, but also provide new references for future empirical researches. At the same time, they can help enterprise managers to more clearly identify the life cycle stage of the enterprise and provide strong support for them to make business decisions.

Key words: corporate life cycle, growth rate classification, optimization of measurement methods

中图分类号:

F270.05

邹文理, 谢小平, 叶俊凯. 如何平滑刻画企业生命周期——基于增长率分类法的测度方法优化[J]. 当代财经, 2024, 0(11): 98-110.

ZOU Wen-li, XIE Xiao-ping, YE Jun-kai. How to Depict the Firm Life Cycle Smoothly: Optimization of Measurement Methods Based on Growth Rate Classification Method[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2024, 0(11): 98-110.

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