关键词: “十四五”时期, 地方政府, 一般公共预算收支, 收支预测, 财政可持续性发展

Abstract: To grasp the changing trend of the general public budget revenue and expenditure of local governments and to promote the sustainable development of local finance during the 14th Five Year Plan period are of great realistic significance in reducing local financial risks. By making use of China's financial data from 1994 to 2020 and constructing an integrated autoregressive moving average model, this paper analyzes the changing situations of the revenue and expenditure of local governments' general public budgets during the 14^th Five Year Plan period. The findings show that during the future five years the revenue and expenditure of local governments' general public budgets will maintain the lower average annual growths of 3.25% and 3.71% respectively. In terms of region and province, the income growths in developed regions are more stable, the income gap among provinces continues to widen, while the expenditure growths in relatively developed and undeveloped regions fluctuate more greatly and the fault of the expenditure scales among the provinces is obvious. On the whole, the room for the sustainable development of the local finance will be narrowed slightly, the financial self-sufficiency will be reduced from 47.74% to 46.53%, presenting a differentiation pattern that the first echelon continues to improve, the second echelon mainly declines, and the third echelon deteriorates quickly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek solutions from the three aspects: improving the quality of local financial revenue, enhancing the efficiency of local financial expenditure, and improving the room for sustainable development of local finance.

Key words: the 14^th Five Year Plan period, local government, general public budget revenue and expenditure, revenue and expenditure forecast, fiscal sustainable development