关键词: 新常态,经济政策不确定性,信贷规模,时变FAVAR

Abstract: Bank credit is a“double-edged sword”; while providing important support for the funds needed for economic development, it is also an important factor influencing macroeconomic fluctuations. The findings of the empirical study based on TVP-FAVAR model show that the increase of uncertainty of China’s economic policies has inhibited the total amount of bank credit, and this suppression effect has obvious time-varying characteristics. Compared with the old normality, the suppression effect is more significant under the new normality. Through further analysis of the dual transmission path of credit supply and demand, it is also found that under the new normality, the uncertainty of economic policies would intensify the weakening of credit demands and result in the growing mood of banks to be tight in lending. The Chinese government should try to maintain the consistency and coherence of policies, formulate corresponding credit support policies, and minimize the“shrinking”effect of the rising economic policy uncertainty on credit demand and credit supply.

Key words: new normality; economic policy uncertainty; credit scale; time-varying FAVAR