关键词: 金融周期,动态溢出指数,传导机制,中美

Abstract: During the two financial crises and since China’s economy stepped into the “new normal”phase, the total spillover effect and the directional spillover effect of the financial cyclical fluctuations between China and the United States have been obviously at a higher level. The directional spillover effect of financial cyclical fluctuations between the two countries shows significant asymmetric characteristics, i.e., the directional spillover effect from financial fluctuation of the United States on China’s financial system is significantly higher than that of China’s financial fluctuation on US financial system. At the present stage, China’s financial cyclical fluctuation is transmitted to the financial system of the United States mainly through the interest rate market and the exchange rate market, while the interest rate market, the money market and the credit market are the main routes through which the financial cyclical fluctuation of the United States is transmitted to China’s financial system. Therefore, while actively adjusting the financial structure to ensure the process of China’s financial opening-up is gradual and orderly, China and the United States should also establish a long-term cooperation mechanism in the financial field, formulate unified financial supervision standards, and improve the transnational risk sharing mechanism, so as to prevent the resonance of the financial systems of the two countries from aggravating the systemic financial risks of the world.

Key words: financial cycle; dynamic spillover index; transmission mechanism; Sino-US