关键词: 人口结构,货币政策,时变系数向量自回归

Abstract: Based on the data from six emerging economies, this paper probes into the impact of ageing on the effectiveness of monetary policy with the variables representing the effectiveness of monetary policy obtained with the method of TVP-VAR. The results show that the population ageing has weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy and there exists asymmetry in that impact, i.e., the impact on the output is greater than that on the inflation, and the impact on the interest regulation is greater than that on the money supply regulation. In addition, this effect is more significant after the Chinese sample is removed, which reflects the robustness of the result and the heterogeneity in the Chinese samples. With the financial systems in emerging economies being improved gradually, the impact of population aging on monetary policy efficacy will be more and more obvious. Thus, we should not only pay attention to the adoption of diversified monetary policy operation methods but also match them with other macro policies and structural reforms, so as to cope with the challenge of ageing with considerations of the situation.

Key words: population structure; monetary policy; TVP-VAR