关键词: 绿色发展,碳排放,城镇化,经济结构

Abstract: From the perspective of population and urbanization, this paper constructs a seven factors model of China’s carbon emission to calculate the contribution of each factor by the LMDI approach. The results reveal that in terms of the action direction of the variables, such factors as population size, rate of urbanization, employment rate in urban areas and energy intensity have a positive correlation with carbon emission, the factor keeps a negative effect on carbon emission is the urban-rural structure of employment, while such factors as economic structure and carbon emission intensity present an interlaced positive-negative effect in stages. In terms of the action effects of the variables, the impact of such factors as the rate of urbanization, urban-rural structure of employment, economic structure and energy intensity is rather significant; while the impact of such factors as population size, urban employment rate and carbon emission intensity is rather weaker. Moreover, it is inevitable that the increasing rate of urbanization will bring about more carbon emission. However, there does exist win-win situations in which the rate of urbanization increases while the environmental cost reduces when such factors as the rate of urbanization, urban employment rate and the urban-rural structure of employment are taken into consideration.

Key words: green development; carbon emission; urbanization; economic structure