关键词: 房价,收入差距,主体建模,政策模拟

Abstract: By employing the agent modeling method of computational economics and taking the house purchase quota policy and the reality transfer tax policy as examples, this paper designs and constructs a housing market simulation model (PEA2.0) so as to analyze the impact of income gap on the effect of commercial housing policy. The results indicate that both the house purchase quota policy and the reality transfer tax policy have the effect of lowering the prices of commercial houses, increasing the residential housing holding rate, and reducing the residents’ multi-house ownership rate. However, the realizing of this kind of policy effect is affected by the income gap. With the widening income gap, the regulating effect of policies will be reduced gradually, the average price of commercial housing will rise, the commercial house ownership rate will drop, and the rate of residents with multi-house ownership will rise. Therefore, the government should not only make relevant regulating policies according to the development of the real estate market, but also make great efforts to narrow the income gap, so as to have a more effective adjustment of the demand-supply structure in the real estate market.

Key words: house price; income gap; agent modeling; policy simulation