当代财经 ›› 2015, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (12): 491-.

• • 上一篇    

财政支出对就业的影响存在门限效应吗——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据

卢晓军,张铭洪   

  1. (厦门大学 经济学院,福建 厦门 361005)
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-30 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:卢晓军,厦门大学博士研究生,主要从事财税理论与政策研究,联系方式xiaojunlu@yeah.net;张铭洪,厦门大学教授,博士生导师,主要从事财税理论与政策研究。

Is There A Threshold Effect of Fiscal Expenditure on Employment Evidences from China’s Provincial Panel Data

LU Xiao-jun, ZHANG Ming-hong   

  1. (Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)
  • Received:2015-07-30 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 基于IS-LM模型和奥肯定律,从宏观层面重新梳理财政支出对就业影响的传导路径,并据此提出研究假说,即财政支出对就业的影响存在门限效应。与高经济发展阶段相比,当经济处于低发展阶段时,财政支出对就业具有更高的正向效应。来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据印证了研究假说的成立。研究还发现,消费的提升对就业的促进作用最为明显,而过度投资对就业可能起到反向作用。由此,调整财政支出结构,提高人力资本积累方面的支出,注重缓解结构性的就业矛盾,有助于促进经济增长与就业的良性互动。

关键词: 财政支出,就业,门限效应,经济增长

Abstract: Based on IS-LM model and Okun’s law, this paper tries to sort out the conduction path of the impact of fiscal expenditure on employment from the macroscopic level. Then it puts forward a research hypothesis, that is, there exists a threshold effect of fiscal expenditure on employment. Compared with the stage of faster economic development, when the economic development is slower, fiscal expenditure has stronger positive effects on employment. Evidences from China’s provincial panel data have verified the research hypothesis. It is also found that the improvement of consumption can play a significant role in promoting employment, while over-investment could play a reverse role in promoting employment. Thus, China should adjust the structure of financial expenditure, increase the expenditure on human capital accumulation, focus on relieving the structural contradictions in employment, so as to promote the positive interaction between economic growth and employment.

Key words: fiscal expenditure; employment; threshold effect; economic growth