关键词: CGE模型,商业银行,压力测试,房地产价格,信用风险

Abstract: There exist apparent bubbles in Chinese housing markets at present. In order to prevent financial risks, it is truly necessary to squeeze some the bubbles by means of policy and market mechanism. From the perspective of general equilibrium, based on CGE model, this paper adopts the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2013 together with the Wilson model to conduct a pressure test of the credit risks brought by China’s falling housing prices on the commercial bank system. The results indicate that if the falling housing prices exceed 30 percent, the commercial banks will suffer huge financial risks, even financial crisis may be triggered. The important implication for policy-making is that in order to prevent financial risks and avoid financial crisis, China’s macroscopic readjustment and control should not only inhibit the housing prices from rising excessively, but also avoid sharp dropping of housing prices.

Key words: CGE model; commercial bank; pressure test; real estate price; credit risks