关键词: 开发商行为,土地管制,部分调整,住房供给

Abstract: Based on a partial adjustment model of housing stock, this paper estimates the response speed of the supply side to the demand impact in the housing market. The empirical analysis shows that, when faced with a positive demand impact in China’s housing market, the supply side cannot make quick response to increase the housing supply, which is one of the important reasons for the sustained high prices of China’s housing.The housing construction cycle itself cannot fully explain the slow response speed, the real reasons for the slow adjustment of the supply side are that the actions of land hoarding, prolonged development and so on taken by the developers based on the housing price expectation, as well as the strict land control of ther government. Hence, in the context of increasing demand for housing, the government should pay attention to the management of the supply side. On one hand, it should change the market expectation and crack down on land hoarding, so as to adjust the housing supply speed; on the other hand, it should release the land regulation gradually and give full play to the market in optimizing the allocation of land resources, so as to achieve the balance between supply and demand.

Key words: developers’ behavior; land control; partial adjustment; housing supply