关键词: 中国经济增长,卡尔多定律,瑟尔沃定律,需求导向型增长

Abstract: In this paper, we prove the applicability of Kaldor’s demand-oriented growth theories in China with data in China from 1979-2013. That is to say，demand could promote long-term economic growth. The pulling effect is significant of demand for manufactured goods on economic growth in eastern and central regions, and this pulling effect is achieved mainly by increasing returns to scale in the manufacturing sector. Data show that the pulling effect of this period in 2001-2013 is much stronger than before. However, the data also show that the effect of increasing returns to scale in manufacturing is weakening, which could mean technological progress in a passive way of“learning by doing”will be difficult to sustain, and China must take a more proactive way of technological progress. Contribution of exports to economic growth is 1.12 percent in average, which is much higher than the estimate of traditional methods. However, the contribution rate of export is in a downward trend. This means that we need to compensate the adverse effects of the decline in external demand by increasing domestic demand, and promote economic growth through domestic demand. This could provide theoretical and empirical support for“economic development must be transferred to the track that relying on domestic demand and innovation”emphasized in third plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

Key words: economic growth in China；Kaldor’s Law；Thirlwall’s law；demand oriented growth