当代财经 ›› 2014, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (08): 1714-.

• • 上一篇    

我国地方政府债务可持续性测度研究——基于单一主体模型分析

缪小林,伏润民   

  1. (云南财经大学 公共政策研究中心,云南 昆明 650221)
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-18 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:缪小林,云南财经大学讲师,博士,主要从事地方财政理论与政策研究,联系方式xlmiao1983@qq.com;伏润民,云南财经大学经济学首席教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事公共财政理论与政策研究。

On the Measurement of Sustainability of China’s Local Government Debt: Based on the Single Body Model Analysis

MIAO Xiao-lin, FU Run-min   

  1. (Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China)
  • Received:2014-03-18 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 一级单一主体可持续性地方政府债务取决于预算收支缺口,以及债务平均成本和收益效应。在此基础上,采用反映发展规模和承载能力的地方综合收入份额进行初次分配,再采用债务综合风险系数进行修正,然后得到各二级单一主体可持续性地方政府债务。实证测度表明,我国地方政府债务总体上处于可持续,但存在区域分布上的结构差异,尤其是较为落后的西部地区表现出债务不可持续。解决这一问题的关键,就是要提升西部及相关地区的债务收益水平。

关键词: 地方政府债务,可持续性,单一主体,债务收益水平

Abstract: The sustainability of local government debt at the single body level depends on the gap between budgetary revenues and expenditures, as well as the average cost of debt and the income effects. On this basis, this paper applies the local comprehensive income share which can reflect the scale of development and the bearing capacity for the initial allocation, then it makes use of the debt comprehensive risk factors for the correction, finally, it obtains the sustainability of local government debt of each single subject at the second level. The empirical measurement shows that China’s local government debt is generally sustainable, but there are structural differences in the regional distribution, especially the more backward western regions would exhibit unsustainable debt. The key to solving this problem is to improve the debt income level of the West and the related areas.

Key words: local government debt; sustainability; single subject; debt income level