关键词: 资金循环,资金链,系统动力学,债务危机

Abstract: According to the principle of system dynamics, this paper constructs a dynamical model of corporate fund circulation system of China’s real estate development enterprises. With the help of such adjusting and controlling parameters as land supply policy, mortgage interest rate, housing tax policy and house purchase quota policy, it has optimized the system exogenous controlling variables and has for the first time introduced the jump function and conditional functions to simulate the scenario and identify the debt crisis of the fund circulation system of the real estate development enterprises, which reveals the effect of “policy lab”. The derived results from the realistic initial state indicate that the real estate developers, who are faced with greater liquidity risk and debt repayment pressure, would have to choose private financing to alleviate the short-term liquidity pressure, or sell their stock rights to remove the cumulated debt pressure. Meanwhile, the different adjusting and controlling policies have significant differences at the strength and links of their functions. The order of the adjusting and controlling effects from high to low is as follows: land supply policy, mortgage interest rate, housing purchase quota policy and real estate tax policy.

Key words: fund circulation; fund chain; system dynamics; debt crisis