当代财经 ›› 2013, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (01): 1617-.

• • 上一篇    

国际收支失衡、经济波动与中国经济增长质量

李娟伟   

  1. (西北大学 经济管理学院,陕西 西安 710127)
  • 收稿日期:2013-02-26 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:李娟伟,西北大学博士研究生,主要从事经济增长质量研究;

Imbalance of International Payments, Economic Fluctuations and Quality of China’s Economic Growth

LI Juan-wei   

  1. (Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China)
  • Received:2013-02-26 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 在理论上探讨国际收支失衡与经济增长质量之间的相互关系,并运用3SLS和系统GMM方法,结合中国1982-2011年数据进行实证检验,回归结果表明中国国际收支失衡通过宏观经济稳定性影响经济增长质量的变化,国际收支失衡与经济增长质量负相关,其中经常项目收支失衡加剧了经济增长波动性,资本项目收支失衡是形成通货膨胀波动的重要因素,而且经济增长波动性也加剧了通货膨胀波动,因此调节国际收支失衡有利于促进宏观经济稳定和经济增长质量的提高。

关键词: 国际收支失衡,经济增长质量,经济波动

Abstract: This paper discusses the relationships between the imbalance of international payments and the quality of economic growth in theory. By adopting the methods of 3SLS and System-GMM, it conducts an empirical test with China’s annual data from 1982 to 2011. The regression results show that the imbalance of international payments influences the changing quality of economic growth through the macroeconomic stability, that the imbalance of payments is negatively related to the quality of economic growth, among which the imbalance of current accounts has increased the volatility of economic growth, and that the imbalance of capital account is an important factor affecting the inflation volatility. Meanwhile, the economic growth volatility has also intensified the inflation volatility. Therefore, to adjust the imbalance of international payments is helpful in promoting macroeconomic stability and improving the quality of economic growth in China.

Key words: imbalance of international payments; quality of economic growth; economic fluctuations