Abstract: Through analyzing the present situation of agro-products trade countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, this paper constructs a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the potential of agricultural products export trade of Xinjiang province in China to the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, with an emphasis on the investigation of the non-efficiency affecting factors on agricultural products trade from the two aspects of infrastructure constructions and institutional environment. The results show that, firstly, the agricultural products trade is developing quickly between Xinjiang and the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, the agricultural products for export in Xinjiang are mainly vegetables, fruits, products of vegetables and fruits, mixed edible raw materials, meats and meat products; secondly, such factors as economic scale, population size, geographical distance, border, etc. can affect the export trade of agricultural products; thirdly, Xinjiang has regional differences in the export potential of agricultural products to the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, among which the potential to Turkmenistan is the greatest; fourthly, the improvement of the construction of infrastructure, like transportation, communications and internet, and the improvement of the institutional environment are all conducive to reducing the loss of export efficiency of agricultural products.

Key words: agricultural products export; trade potential; influencing factors; the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt