Evaluation of the Solvency of Urban Pension Insurance Based on Longevity Risks

Abstract

Abstract: With the fast development of the aging population, the longevity risks exert great adverse impacts on the current pension system. In order to accurately assess the solvency status of urban employees' basic pension insurance in the context of longevity risks, this paper constructs a full-factor interval estimation method based on the double-randomized Lee-Carter model of finite data and measures the longevity risks. Then by establishing a solvency assessment model, it evaluates the solvency under the ongoing operation of the current system from 2018 to 2050. After that, it incorporates the reform scheme for delaying the retirement age into the solvency assessment model to examine comprehensively the solvency conditions of China's basic pension insurance for urban employees, the purpose is to provide guidance and suggestions for the urban employees' basic pension insurance in China to keep a long-term healthy and sustainable development.

Key words: longevity risk, basic endowment Insurance for urban employees, solvency evaluation, Lee-Carter Model

CLC Number:

F840.612

XIE Lin. Evaluation of the Solvency of Urban Pension Insurance Based on Longevity Risks[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2020, 0(1): 71-84.

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